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Subject: Re: Hmmmm

Author: Peter Berger

Date: 14:15:48 09/28/05

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On September 28, 2005 at 07:41:31, Heinz van Kempen wrote:

>On September 28, 2005 at 07:26:50, Jonas Cohonas wrote:
>
>>So Fritz 9 has this score:
>>
>>6 Toga II 1.0 ( 2727 )	10 + 0	= 1 - 9	 5.0 %	2367
>>
>>So far against Toga??
>>
>>I personally find it hard to believe that something isn't wrong here (in the
>>set-up or the like).
>>
>>Maybe you should re-run the games against Toga?
>>
>>Regards
>>Jonas
>
>Hi Jonas,
>
>please check the games. We all did this. They are available for download with
>comments (depth search, NPS). All games look fine and we see no need to repeat
>them.
>
>http://www.husvankempen.de/nunn/downloads.htm
>
>It looks like a statistical anomaly and we are having many of them. This is
>normal. The match against Toga continues.
>
>Best Regards
>Heinz


There are people who win the jackpot in the lottery every week, so it clearly
happens.

But are you aware *how* unlikely this result is assuming independent events (the
 CEGT setup should guarantee this)  and somehow similar strength of engines,
which can be assumed here?

Especially if you are really seeing *many* of these anomalies as you say and
this is normal in your matches, there *should* be something wrong here.

I hesitated to post this - I am only interested in the mathematical aspect of it
( although my knowledge is a bit rusty).

Peter



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