Author: Heinz van Kempen
Date: 14:23:42 09/28/05
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On September 28, 2005 at 17:15:48, Peter Berger wrote: >On September 28, 2005 at 07:41:31, Heinz van Kempen wrote: > >>On September 28, 2005 at 07:26:50, Jonas Cohonas wrote: >> >>>So Fritz 9 has this score: >>> >>>6 Toga II 1.0 ( 2727 ) 10 + 0 = 1 - 9 5.0 % 2367 >>> >>>So far against Toga?? >>> >>>I personally find it hard to believe that something isn't wrong here (in the >>>set-up or the like). >>> >>>Maybe you should re-run the games against Toga? >>> >>>Regards >>>Jonas >> >>Hi Jonas, >> >>please check the games. We all did this. They are available for download with >>comments (depth search, NPS). All games look fine and we see no need to repeat >>them. >> >>http://www.husvankempen.de/nunn/downloads.htm >> >>It looks like a statistical anomaly and we are having many of them. This is >>normal. The match against Toga continues. >> >>Best Regards >>Heinz > > >There are people who win the jackpot in the lottery every week, so it clearly >happens. > >But are you aware *how* unlikely this result is assuming independent events (the > CEGT setup should guarantee this) and somehow similar strength of engines, >which can be assumed here? > >Especially if you are really seeing *many* of these anomalies as you say and >this is normal in your matches, there *should* be something wrong here. > >I hesitated to post this - I am only interested in the mathematical aspect of it >( although my knowledge is a bit rusty). > >Peter Hi Peter, I really would like to have the opinion of a statistian here who also knows about chess engine matches. The only thing I know is that we best need 2000 games per engine for really reliable rating. Single matches do not really count because of playing style, Memesis opponents, etc.. One thing is sure, I can rely on the CEGT testers. They all have experience for many years already with engine matches. Best Regards Heinz
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