Author: Dann Corbit
Date: 09:24:07 10/12/05
Go up one level in this thread
On October 12, 2005 at 10:48:49, Norm Pollock wrote: >On October 12, 2005 at 04:17:07, Ryan B. wrote: > >>On October 12, 2005 at 03:52:51, Uri Blass wrote: >> >>>On October 12, 2005 at 01:27:26, Dann Corbit wrote: >>> >>>>On October 12, 2005 at 01:10:39, Martin Andersen2 wrote: >>>> >>>>>From Chessbase: >>>>> >>>>>" This afternoon I have been given the latest analytical aid, Fritz 9, which, it >>>>>is claimed, is around 100 Elo points stronger than the previous version. If >>>>>true, it is a giant leap for siliconkind" >>>>> >>>>>Of course if Fritz 9 is 100 Elo points stronger than Fritz 8, it should be at >>>>>2883 (SSDF), and probably better than Fruit. But how likely is this based >>>>>on preliminary tests ? >>> >>>Fruit2.1 is at the same level of Fritz8 bilbao >>>Most customers probably do not have Fritz8 bilbao and Fruit2.1 is probably >>>slightly better than Fritz8. >>> >>>Fruit2.2 is 50-100 elo better than Fruit2.1 so it make sense to think that >>>Fruit2.2 is 100 elo better than Fritz8 >>> >>>Fritz9 is near the level of Fruit2.2 based on CEGT results so I see nothing >>>wrong with the claim. >>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>>Martin. >>>>> >>>>> >>>>>http://chessbase.com/newsdetail.asp?newsid=2676 >>>> >>>>Not surprising. I guess that the Fruit advertizing budget is $0.00 and Fritz at >>>>least a few hundred thousand. >>> >>>When I told in the israeli chess forum that Fruit2.2 is 50-100 elo better than >>>Fruit2.1 then one of the response was that not a lot of people will pay 35$ for >>>the minor improvement from Fruit2.1 to Fruit2.2 >>> >>>Uri >> >> >>I did not know 50-100 elo was minor. > >Here is the table of rating values. Looking for closest value +/- 37.5 elo which >is equivalent to a 75 point elo improvement, we get 55%-45%. So a player with a >75 point elo advantage will score 55% against the other player. > >Rating expectancies vs. differences P D P D P D > .99 677 .66 117 .33 -125 > .98 589 .65 110 .32 -133 > .97 538 .64 102 .31 -141 > .96 501 .63 95 .30 -149 > .95 470 .62 87 .29 -158 > .94 444 .61 80 .28 -166 > .93 422 .60 72 .27 -175 > .92 401 .59 65 .26 -184 > .91 383 .58 57 .25 -193 > .90 366 .57 50 .24 -202 > .89 351 .56 43 .23 -211 > .88 335 .55 36 .22 -220 > .87 322 .54 29 .21 -230 > .86 309 .53 21 .20 -240 > .85 296 .52 14 .19 -251 > .84 284 .51 7 .18 -262 > .83 273 .50 0 .17 -273 > .82 262 .49 -7 .16 -284 > .81 251 .48 -14 .15 -296 > .80 240 .47 -21 .14 -309 > .79 230 .46 -29 .13 -322 > .78 220 .45 -36 .12 -335 > .77 211 .44 -43 .11 -351 > .76 202 .43 -50 .10 -366 > .75 193 .42 -57 .09 -383 > .74 184 .41 -65 .08 -401 > .73 175 .40 -72 .07 -422 > .72 166 .39 -80 .06 -444 > .71 158 .38 -87 .05 -470 > .70 149 .37 -95 .04 -501 > .69 141 .36 -102 .03 -538 > .68 133 .35 -110 .02 -589 > .67 125 .34 -117 .01 -677 I calculate about 60/40 split for 75 Elo. Win expectency for a difference of 75 points is 0.393712 Win expectency for a difference of 50 points is 0.428537
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