Author: James Robertson
Date: 08:47:35 03/18/99
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On March 18, 1999 at 10:32:03, Pat King wrote: >On March 18, 1999 at 09:21:01, Albert Silver wrote: > >>On March 18, 1999 at 05:30:33, Charles Unruh wrote: >> >>> If Kasparov beat GM Ashley 6 games in a row what would it say about his chess? >>> If Yermo beat H7 6 times in a row what would it say about it's chess? >>> H7 needs to play a 2500 GM. Why? Because we(most of us speculate the comps >>>are around 2500-2550 no one(few) expect that progs are 2600+ >> >>If the program does indeed play at 2500 then it should hardly lose 6-0 but more >>like 4-2. > >It's expected score may be 4-2, but a 6-0 loss would not be significant. Just as >if I flip a coin 6 times, and get heads 4 or 5 times instead of 3 times, I >cannot draw a conclusion about the "fairness" of the coin. The sample size is >just too small. I agree that the sample space is small, but it is not _that_ small. The odds of getting 6-0 for flipping a coin is 2 ^ 6, or 1 in 64. But in chess we have draws; 3 ^ 6 is 1 in 729, or 0.13%. And at the GM level I would wager that draws occur more than 1/3 of the time between evenly rating players. Even though the ratings are uneven, they change the odds only tiny amount; For instance, Yermolinsky should win 0.679% of the points, since he is 130 points higher (assuming Hiarcs 7 is 2500). That increases the odds he will win all 6 games by less than 1/2 of a percent. James > >A more even match with an expected outcome of 3-3 MIGHT let one say something >definitive in the event of a 6-0 rout.
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