Author: Charles Milton Ling
Date: 11:43:31 03/18/99
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On March 18, 1999 at 14:06:16, Robert Hyatt wrote: >On March 18, 1999 at 10:07:01, Charles Unruh wrote: > >>I have played 155 tournament games in my career and i have never lost or drawn a >>single game against any person that was 150 rating points below me. In a mere 6 >>game match yermo could be expected to take H7 out 6 0. My rating is currently >>in the 1900s. I'm sure there are many players with similar records. This leads >>me to believe that there is some error when one predicts that in a 6 game match >>that a 2500 player should score 2/6 against a 2630 player. I certainly hope H7 >>is much stronger than 2500, otherwise this will just increase speculation about >>the progs strength. This because if it loses all of the games we can only judge >>it's strength by the quality of play not by how many games it lost. A 2500 >>player would be a much better purely investigative experiment. Alas we must >>take what we can get. This match should be more fun from a spectators point of >>view, but from an investigative point of view, there may not be much knowledge >>gleaned, unles H7 is considerably stronger than 2500. Everyone primarily has >>been wanting to demonstrate that comps are at least 2500 first. > > >While I obviously won't argue with your 'data', you are a 100-sigma deviation >from the normal curve as defined by Elo. IE first, how many players have you >played 150 points below you? if you have played 20 and lost none, that is a >remarkable (and highly non-repeatable for most others) result. > >Because in a match, with a player 200 points lower, you should expect to lose >1 or draw 2 of every 4 games... roughly... > >And that is just simple statistics based on the Elo rating system.. 100 sigma? I suppose my former post is rather stupid, then, and should preferably be disregarded. Charley
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