Author: James Robertson
Date: 19:27:01 03/18/99
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On March 18, 1999 at 13:43:07, Peter Kappler wrote: >On March 18, 1999 at 13:17:05, Charles Unruh wrote: > >>On March 18, 1999 at 10:44:46, KarinsDad wrote: >> >>>On March 18, 1999 at 10:07:01, Charles Unruh wrote: >>> >>>>I have played 155 tournament games in my career and i have never lost or drawn a >>>>single game against any person that was 150 rating points below me. >>> >>>Charles, >>> >>>Your playing history is an anomally. I have played players 400 points below me >>>and lost and I have played players 400 points above me and won. >> >>No it's not really an anomally, most players that i know, and i know hundreds, >>indeed are not as steady as myself, but as far as it comes to losing to players >>150 points lower than themselves though it happens it's usually less than 1 in >>30 or 40 games that it does happen. There is simply something critical that is >>being left out in the statistical calculation. > > >Any chance that you are beating up on the same player over and over? Maybe some >dummy at your local chess club keeps trying a gambit line that you know a lot >better than him? > >A 150-point rating differential translates to a 30% win probability for the >lower rated player. The likelihood of you winning 30 or 40 games in a row in >this scenario is essentially zero. I would be willing to wager no one in this forum has a calculator that can calculate 0.70 ^ 30 or 0.70 ^ 40. :) James > >You keep drawing this line at 150 pts, but I really suspect that you have >compiled these results against much weaker opponents, on average. > >--Peter
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