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Subject: Re: Statistics, computer evaluations and some trends

Author: Dagh Nielsen

Date: 05:39:03 11/19/05

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Dear JNoomen.

Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

I'm in full agreement with what I understand as the main point: That the best
course of action depends heavily on the circumstances. Let me add another
similar point: The measurement of success ALSO depends heavily on the
circumstances.

Just like the "best move" depends on the opponent, the concept of a "strong
book" depends on what is your measurement of success.

I have been managing a book for play at playchess for a while now as hobby, and
I often find myself confused about just what is my goal with the book.

It started as a kind of vague challenge, how well could I profit from using good
sources and time on analysis. Would my limited skills allow me to become "king
of the hill", whatever that meant?

But at the same time, I am heavily guided by interest in opening theory, and
that interest doesn't cover all openings. So I quickly decided to focus almost
all my work on a semi-rare Ruy Lopez line as black, intending to "perfect" play
in that line. Either I could make it work, or if that failed, I would learn how
to kill it and could use that as white, and move on (and on and on).

So OK, I had a very detailed dead wood book on that opening, and I spent lots of
time analysing critical variations. I have found many strong improvements now,
and variations that are just simply difficult to play as white or black for an
unprepared engine. And results have been good in the last big patch of
games(like 62% with black on playchess, using only an AMD XP 2400).

But it has also dawned upon me now: my opponents begin to avoid my "traps" (or
lines that are simply not as good as public results had indicated). Maybe it
would have been better not to play so many games and keep my analysis more
secret?

And then we are back to how we measure success. If my only goal was "peak
performance" (like a tournament once in a while), I should probably keep my
analysis and areas of investigation secret.

But success could also be just to demonstrate in public that one can make a line
work? Or to learn as much about an opening as possible? If that were the case, I
should be happy to play lots of games and find out what problems my opponent
book cookers are able to present me with. It would be similar to an arms race of
analysis. Maybe the goal is to have fun THAT way?

Also, in general, what kind of book would make you satisfied? A broad or a
specialised book, an "impressive book" (whatever THAT would be), a book
achieving high rating, a book finetuned to a specific engine, or a book that
maybe works well as an engine neutral book?

And another decision: do you want your book to save a slow computer or bad
engine by going into drawish or safe variations, or do you want your book to
enter complex positions where the fastest comp + engine could optimize its
results?

I think here also a good distinction is between semi-secret books that are
effective partly thanks to them being secret, and then the concept of a
"resilient book". A resilient book is a book you can't easily beat by preparing
lines that would trap most engines. If you want to make a book intended for
publication, you would probably want it to be as resilient as possible. But that
would also mean that you may have to discard some sharp lines that are not
thoroughly explored yet and vulnerable to cooked traps. Is that a compromise you
are willing to make?

So, all in all, there are many decisions to be made. The measurement of success
is highly subjective and depends on the circumstances.

Personally I have found book cooking a very funny hobby, and I would be very
interested to learn what conclusions other people with this hobby have reached
about the above questions.

All the best,
Dagh Nielsen



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