Author: Robert Hyatt
Date: 12:35:04 03/19/99
Go up one level in this thread
On March 18, 1999 at 22:27:01, James Robertson wrote:
>On March 18, 1999 at 13:43:07, Peter Kappler wrote:
>
>>On March 18, 1999 at 13:17:05, Charles Unruh wrote:
>>
>>>On March 18, 1999 at 10:44:46, KarinsDad wrote:
>>>
>>>>On March 18, 1999 at 10:07:01, Charles Unruh wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>I have played 155 tournament games in my career and i have never lost or drawn a
>>>>>single game against any person that was 150 rating points below me.
>>>>
>>>>Charles,
>>>>
>>>>Your playing history is an anomally. I have played players 400 points below me
>>>>and lost and I have played players 400 points above me and won.
>>>
>>>No it's not really an anomally, most players that i know, and i know hundreds,
>>>indeed are not as steady as myself, but as far as it comes to losing to players
>>>150 points lower than themselves though it happens it's usually less than 1 in
>>>30 or 40 games that it does happen. There is simply something critical that is
>>>being left out in the statistical calculation.
>>
>>
>>Any chance that you are beating up on the same player over and over? Maybe some
>>dummy at your local chess club keeps trying a gambit line that you know a lot
>>better than him?
>>
>>A 150-point rating differential translates to a 30% win probability for the
>>lower rated player. The likelihood of you winning 30 or 40 games in a row in
>>this scenario is essentially zero.
>
>I would be willing to wager no one in this forum has a calculator that can
>calculate 0.70 ^ 30 or 0.70 ^ 40. :)
>
>James
xcalc does: .7^30=.00002253934
.7^40=.00000636680
both are pretty close to 0
:)
>
>>
>>You keep drawing this line at 150 pts, but I really suspect that you have
>>compiled these results against much weaker opponents, on average.
>>
>>--Peter
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