Author: Albert Silver
Date: 07:00:31 11/19/05
Go up one level in this thread
On November 19, 2005 at 06:12:50, JNoomen wrote:
>Thanks for all your comments on my Fruit-Diep report. At least it has given me
>some ideas for a new posting, which is given below. I want to discuss 4 topics I
>wanted to write about already for some time, but I never took the time do so.
>Now your reactions gave me the necessary 'boost' to sit down and write down the
>stuff.
>
>Statistics
>--------------
>In many database programs and chess computer GUI's there is the nice option that
>it will tell you the exact statistics of the moves being played in a position,
>as well as the average Elo of the players that played the moves. This gives
>insight in how often a move was played, what it's success rate is and what type
>of players (strong, less strong) chose the moves. When building a book such
>statistics are very helpful and they can point you towards the best move in a
>position. When building a book with f.e. the ChessBase GUI, using 200.000 GM
>games over 2500 Elo, you already have quite a decent book.
>
>Still there are some topics that one should be well aware about:
>
>1. The game statistics are between humans and not between chess programs.
>2. The score of a game (0-1, 1-0 or draw) says nothing about the actual
>evaluation of a move.
>3. Between the opening moves and the final result there is a complete game to
>watch, with its ups and downs, its mistakes and brilliant moves and even
>blunders.
>4. A score of 25% for a move in a certain position never means that the move
>should be bad. In fact it can be the only move or the best move available.
>5. When using games only, you have no moves that will punish bad lines, or
>defend against unsound attacks. Because such lines are never played between
>strong players.
Yes, this is clear. It is much like a sharp and previously successful line that
is refuted. You could have it scoring 80% over the course of 100 games, and then
one game reveals an indisputable refutation making the line more or less
unplayable.
Statistically it will still say 79% in favor of the unplayable move, and if you
only look at the stats, you will not know this.
Albert
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