Author: Dann Corbit
Date: 13:49:09 03/19/99
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On March 19, 1999 at 16:14:46, Matt Frank wrote: >On March 18, 1999 at 05:23:11, Charles Unruh wrote: > >>I don't think this match will really show the strength of a the computer at all. >> This is like kasparov playing Yermo in a match. We need an average GM. It will >>still be fun though > >Charles, I'm not sure that you have assessed the strength of Hiarcs 7 properly; >but in any event the match will tell all. I assume that if Hiarcs 7 wins the >match or draws you would then be willing to conclude that in all probability >Hiarcs 7 deserves to be rated at GM strength, right. If Hiarcs is really only a >2480-2510 program, Mr. Yermolinsky would be expected to score 4-2. However if >the program is operating at 2600 + on my system, he should be no better than >even money to hold the draw. I expect that the performance rating for Hiarcs 7, >based on this match, will be FIDE elo 2600 +, which would imply a 3 score or >higher for Hiarcs in this six game match. We will need to be careful what to conclude from the match. We will be able to state proability figures only. For example, what is the probability that a 2300 machine could score as well? A 2900 machine? etc. Six games is very slight to make statistical judgements. Thirty is a magical value that makes statistics much more reliable. But we will know that it is likely that it is very strong if it wins any games.
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