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Subject: Re: Statistics, computer evaluations and some trends

Author: JNoomen

Date: 00:19:31 11/20/05

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On November 19, 2005 at 21:42:37, Stephen A. Boak wrote:

Stephen,

Excellent posting, thanks!

Jeroen


>On November 19, 2005 at 06:12:50, JNoomen wrote:
>
>I. QUESTION #1 - WHAT IS THE TRUTH IN A POSITION [1, 1/2, or 0]
>
>>As far as I am concerned: I tend to distrust the computer evaluations, regarding a specific position.
>
>I strongly agree.
>
>>I think that a computer eval says more about whether the program likes the resulting position or not.
>
>I strongly agree--it does not mean the computer 'understands' the position.
>
>>But not exactly the clean and pure eval of the position itself.
>>For me, the only truth is the position on the board.
>
>The search for a truthful evaluation [correct result: 1, 1/2, 0] of a particular
>position is what fascinates human chess players who want to understand & learn.
>
>It is an open-ended question if the complexity of a position does not allow a
>clear [provable & understandable] path to the truth.
>
>Complex positions are attractive to human players who believe/hope they can
>manage the complexity [and enjoy doing so] better than their opponent, or who
>need to unbalance a position when a win or draw is necessary.
>
>[..]
>
>II. QUESTION #2 - WHAT PATH OF PLAY IN A POSITION MAXIMIZES OUR PRACTICAL
>CHANCES TO ACHIEVE OUR GOAL(S)
>
>>How to evaluate this position
>>-----------------------------------------
>>Another position I am very interested to share thoughts with you. Suppose you
>>have a slightly better ending and there is a deep line that gives the
>>opportunity to exchange into a R+B vs. R ending. Of course your program has
>>tablebases, so it will calculate a score of 0,00  for that position and refuse
>>to play it. Since it has a slightly better position and that is better than a
>>0,00 score. But will that choice maximise the winning chances of the program in
>>question?
>
>>My simple answer is: it depends on the opponent.
>
>Now your comments diverge from your above statement that, "the only truth is the
>position on the board."
>
>No problem, but we must remain clear on where this discussion is going.
>
>At this juncture, the inquiry now concerns the other major, open-ended question
>(which we would love to correctly resolve): "What practical move choices will
>maximize our chances to [Win or Draw]."
>
>We are no longer concerned solely with the truth of the position (although that
>determination hangs over our head as we analyze our new concern).
>
>A. We are now concerned with finding the best way to outplay our opponent, and
>thus obtain *more* than the theoretical truth in the position.
>
>If the position is, in truth, a loss, we now wish to seek a Draw or Win.
>If the postion is, in truth, a Draw, we wish to seek a Win.
>
>B. Alternatively, we are now concerned with finding the best way to *hold* the
>theoretical result of the position [Win or Draw], without stumbling and making
>an error that scores less than the theoretical value of the position.
>
>In analyzing QUESTION #2 during a game, we no longer look only at the truth of
>the position on the board.
>
>III. PRAXIS DISCUSSION: PRACTICAL CHOICES - BALANCING THE CHANCES
>
>A. We must now look at the understanding/playing strengths and weaknesses of:
>1) our opponent; and
>2) ourself.
>
>B. The available thinking time left on the clocks of:
>1) our opponent; and
>2) ourself.
>
>C. We must also look now at the types of move paths we could choose, and
>resulting positions we could encounter:
>1) Complicated or Simple
>2) Balanced or Unbalanced
>3) Strength of Attack and Possibilities for Counter-Attack
>4) Possibilities for Tricks & Traps or to overlook a Trick or Trap
>5) etc.
>
>D. We then must weave together our knowledge knowledge & judgement regarding the
>assessment of the abilities of our opponent and ourself, the time remaining on
>our clocks, and the types of move paths and resulting positions we could steer
>for (things are not always guaranteed!!) or in fact force on the board.
>
>Thus we make a move selection that *maximizes* our practical chances, under the
>circumstances.
>
>It is also *this* aspect of playing chess (MAXIMIZING OUR CHANCES) that is
>attractive to chess players.
>
>Theoretical results do not alone control our moves.
>
>Practical chances is of utmost importance when we wish to improve our
>statistical playing chances to:
>1) at least obtain our theoretical result; or
>2) when we wish to or have to exceed the theoretical result of the position
>(because we *must* have the Win or the Draw).
>
>Now the art of chess is at work.  Psychology comes into play (knowing our
>opponent's likes & dislikes, abilities to handle or mishandle certain types of
>positions, as well as our own propensities and abilities).
>
>Much of the delight in a chess game comes from finding those tiny beginning
>sparks of chances that our opponent overlooks, and in fanning the flames of
>those chances until they consume our opponent and we can force our desired Draw
>or Win, as needed.
>
>The judgement to do this successfully is not fully explainable.  It balances
>things that are not easily measurable by science, by hard statistics in a chess
>games database.
>
>This judgement is not easy to program into chess software--it is why the
>machines have not yet completely overwhelmed human analysis & play.
>
>Yet it is a fascinating subject worthy of much discussion.  The study of
>PRACTICAL CHANCES will benefit the over-the-board human player, as well
>as(ultimately) the chess programmer.
>
>Best regards,
>--Steve



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