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Subject: Re: You also never really looked at true statistics

Author: Pat King

Date: 12:40:32 03/22/99

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On March 22, 1999 at 00:21:29, KarinsDad wrote:

[snip]
>
>2) Yermo is not getting paid per win and per draw. Hence, he has no financial
>incentive (although he may have a personal motivation) to get a score higher
>than 3.5. Hence, the probabilites above (assuming a 2500 H7 rating) for 3.5 and
>4.0 should be higher and the probabilities for 5.0 through 6.0 should be lower
>(the probabilities for 4.5 may be fairly close).
>
>KarinsDad

True, but then, the draw rate among GMs is due to a lot of factors other than
chess or money. If Yermo (or any human) were as earnest and consistent in his
efforts as H7, chess would have far fewer draws, I think.  I believe my analysis
reflects this fairly well, but I doubt Yermo and H7 are willing to "go the
distance" to validate it :)

Pat




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