Author: Peter Kappler
Date: 20:52:25 03/27/99
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On March 27, 1999 at 20:14:44, Leon Stancliff wrote: >To any or all, > > > > I have listed Fide ratings of the top eight humans in the U.S.A. and attempted >to make a comparison by examination of Eric Hallsworth's Selective Search rating >list for the highest eight Computer programs. When the computers are operating >at 200-233 Mhz. there is a slight advantage in favor of the humans. If, however, >the computer programs are allowed to use the 450 Mhz hardware now available it >should be the reverse. Doubling the speed of the computer programs has resulted >in about a 75 point rating increase in the past. If that is true, when we move >from 233 Mhz. to 450 Mhz. the computers would seem to be capable of at least >playing even at 40/2. > I suspect that we are entering the region of diminishing returns for 40/2 playing strength. Blitz chess is where the effect of the new hardware seems to still be dramatic. Bottom line - you won't continue to see a 75pt jump every time the hardware speed doubles. (At least not for much longer!) > > > Is this pure bunko, or have we truly reached equality between the top human >players in the U.S.A. and computer programs running at 450 Mhz? What would >happen in a round robin tournament today with each of the top eight humans >playing one game with white and one game with black against each of the >following computers. All machines running at 450 Mhz. Time Control 40/2. > >Hiarcs 7, Rebel 10, Fritz 5.32, Junior 5, MChessPro 7, Nimzo 98, Chessmaster 6K >and Crafty 16.5 These may not be the best eight, but they are close! > > > > Would anyone care to predict a total score in such a match? At 40/2, I think the humans would still come out pretty clearly ahead. I asked a similar question earlier this week, only with Kasparov or Anand as the participants. The upcoming Yermolinksy-Hiarcs 7 match will be a very valuable benchmark. I predict a 4-2 victory for Yermo, but I made the same prediction for Kasparov in his 2nd match against Deep Blue... --Peter
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