Author: Uri Blass
Date: 03:17:54 01/12/06
Go up one level in this thread
On January 12, 2006 at 01:52:17, Sandro Necchi wrote: >On January 11, 2006 at 17:18:22, Uri Blass wrote: > >>On January 11, 2006 at 16:27:50, Sandro Necchi wrote: >> >>>On January 10, 2006 at 07:28:55, Gabor Szots wrote: >>> >>>>Question: Which one of Fruit, Rybka and Shredder will be strongest at their next >>>>non-beta release? >>>> >>>>My bet is Fruit. Here is why. >>>> >>>>Fruit made giant leaps in the past. Why should it fade now? >>>>Rybka hid in the dark for a long time and emerged as the greatest. But I don't >>>>think it still has the potential for a great improvement. Somme search tweaks >>>>and some more endgame knowledge will translate to more than 50 Elos. >>>>Shredder 9 was only moderately improved compared to Shredder 8 (if my assessment >>>>based on what I have read is right). And it is old. Without some new >>>>revolutionary ideas it simply cannot gain too much. >>>> >>>>So once again: 1. Fruit, 2. Rybka, 3. Shredder. >>>> >>>>What do yoou think? >>>> >>>>Gábor >>> >>>well, recently we saw that what we thought was hard to be seen it became >>>reality. >>> >>>Now, my prediction is that in less than 2 years we will have more than 5 >>>programs scoring close to 3000 in the SSDF list and one of them will be >>>Shredder. >>> >>>Now more details: >>> >>>1. I expect Rybka 1.2 to get a SSDF Elo about 100 points above Shredder 9 >>>(2918?) and to improve at least 50 points in the following year. >>> >>>2. I expect Fruit 3.0 (?) to be about 50 points stronger than 2.2.1 and to >>>become available late March or April >>> >>>3. I expect Shredder 10 to be about 150 points better than 9.0 and to become >>>available at the end of March and to get 50 points more in about one year... >>> >>>4. I expect Gandalf to increase as well and to be close to those programs. >>> >>>5. I expect a similar gain by Junior too increasing more than 100 points over >>>9.0 and to become available before the end of 2006 >>> >>>6. I expect Hiarcs to increase further 50-80 Elo in one year or so. >>> >>>7. I expect Fritz to gain 50 more points in one year or so. >>> >>>Why am I so optimistic? >>> >>>Because I know how much needs can do to reach goals! >>> >>>Sandro >> >>I am more optimistic than you about Rybka1.2 and fruit3.0. > >Well, maybe Fruit could earn up to 80 more points, but I do not think more than >that. 80 elo is also my guess for fruit but I also have similiar guess for rybka after understanding that rybka1.2 will have better search and not only more endgame knowledge. Uri
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