Author: Vasik Rajlich
Date: 06:13:32 01/17/06
Go up one level in this thread
On January 16, 2006 at 07:21:29, Joseph Ciarrochi wrote: > >> >>Also - it goes without saying, but I love it when testers play _huge_ game sets. >>No sample size is too big. :) > >Even thought i teach statistics, I still have trouble resisting making >inferences from samples under 100. In psychology (my field) we often don't get >sample sizes bigger than this. i've gotten into some bad habits.:( > >I'll keep runing tournies. > >Hopefully, others will post their results and we will have a clearer picture. > >best >J Yes, I know exactly what you mean. Despite having seen dozens of anomalous results, and understanding the math, I still get excited when I see that 11.5:2.5 score. In real life we often must guess based on really insignificant data, so a thirty-game match is already quite a luxury. Vas > > > >> >>Vas >> >>>This is not to criticize vasek of course. He can't really be expected to provide >>>big strength improvements, in two months (especially when he has to do extra >>>work to get beta ready for full release). Indeed, Fabien i don't think made huge >>>increases in fruit in only two months. >>> >>>I could be wrong about the amount of improvement of the newest beta. Please post >>>your results (I am motivated to be wrong, as I want rybka to be stronger!!) >>> >>> >>>So......Has rybka's massive success made us overly optimistic about how much >>>engines are going to improve in the next year? I have heard people say rybka >>>will be 100 points stronger in its full release. I am now betting it is no more >>>than 20 or 30 points stronger. This is no reflection of vasek. There is only so >>>much he can do in a couple of months (and I think he is delivering a fantastic >>>product, well worth the price). >>> >>> >>>so if rybka gains 30 points, and shredder and fruit gain about 70, they will all >>>be of about equal strength and fritz will be in fourth place. >>> >>> >>>Please post evidence to prove me wrong (that rybka beta 10d has not gained >>>strength). maybe their are stronger configurations then i am using (default). >>> >>> >>>best >>>Joseph
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