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Subject: Re: Fruit, shredder 10, rybka....all at the same level in 3 months.

Author: Vasik Rajlich

Date: 06:13:32 01/17/06

Go up one level in this thread


On January 16, 2006 at 07:21:29, Joseph Ciarrochi wrote:

>
>>
>>Also - it goes without saying, but I love it when testers play _huge_ game sets.
>>No sample size is too big. :)
>
>Even thought i teach statistics, I still have trouble resisting making
>inferences from samples under 100. In psychology (my field) we often don't get
>sample sizes bigger than this. i've gotten into some bad habits.:(
>
>I'll keep runing tournies.
>
>Hopefully, others will post their results and we will have a clearer picture.
>
>best
>J

Yes, I know exactly what you mean. Despite having seen dozens of anomalous
results, and understanding the math, I still get excited when I see that
11.5:2.5 score.

In real life we often must guess based on really insignificant data, so a
thirty-game match is already quite a luxury.

Vas

>
>
>
>>
>>Vas
>>
>>>This is not to criticize vasek of course. He can't really be expected to provide
>>>big strength improvements, in two months (especially when he has to do extra
>>>work to get beta ready for full release). Indeed, Fabien i don't think made huge
>>>increases in fruit in only two months.
>>>
>>>I could be wrong about the amount of improvement of the newest beta. Please post
>>>your results (I am motivated to be wrong, as I want rybka to be stronger!!)
>>>
>>>
>>>So......Has rybka's massive success made us overly optimistic about how much
>>>engines are going to improve in the next year? I have heard people say rybka
>>>will be 100 points stronger in its full release. I am now betting it is no more
>>>than 20 or 30 points stronger. This is no reflection of vasek. There is only so
>>>much he can do in a couple of months (and I think he is delivering a fantastic
>>>product, well worth the price).
>>>
>>>
>>>so if rybka gains 30 points, and shredder and fruit gain about 70, they will all
>>>be of about equal strength and fritz will be in fourth place.
>>>
>>>
>>>Please post evidence to prove me wrong (that rybka beta 10d has not gained
>>>strength). maybe their are stronger configurations then i am using (default).
>>>
>>>
>>>best
>>>Joseph



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