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Subject: Re: Statistics... Thanks Ross

Author: Ross Boyd

Date: 00:14:16 01/29/06

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On January 29, 2006 at 02:50:36, chandler yergin wrote:

>On January 28, 2006 at 17:43:37, Ross Boyd wrote:
>
>>On January 28, 2006 at 16:27:48, chandler yergin wrote:
>>
>>>Mark Twain once said.. "There are Lies, Damn Lies and .. Statistics"
>>>It's hard to disprove Statistics, they are what they are.
>>>Four hundred  years of Chess Theory & Millions of games played have proven
>>>that White has a significant advantage with the first move.
>>>Black cannot overcome this, in fact Black cannot even equalize.
>>>Whites Overall Performance is 55% compared to Blacks 45%
>>>The error factor is insignificant.
>>
>>>Whichever Human or Computer plays the Openings by ECO Classification
>>>that are better for White will Win.
>>>Whichever Human or Computer plays the Openings by ECO Classification
>>>that are better for Black will win.
>>
>>Don't you mean they will improve their win/loss percentage?
>Yes Thanks..
>>
>>>It's really that simple.
>>>
>>>So what does Testing Engines against Engines Prove?
>>
>>Not sure what exactly you're saying here.
>>
>>Testing engines vs engines is just a way of gauging relative strength. Rigorous
>>testing against humans is prohibitive time-wise and there are other variables...
>>humans have 'off' days which can skew the results... a computer sparring partner
>>can be relied on to perform consistently.
>Exactly, thanks.
>>
>>If you mean in the context of Opening books, its better to test using a set of
>>standard balanced positions so that it is raw strength we are measuring rather
>>than how good an opening book is.
>Yes, Opening books are very shallow really..
>>
>>Tuning the engine's opening book is just another step in an engine's
>>development.
>Yes, especially in Engine vs Engine games.
>>
>>Ross
>
>        Whites Overall Performance is 55% compared to Blacks 45%
>               These seem to be the Magic numbers.
>              Millions of games played confirm this.
>              What would you conclude from this?

Obviously White has an opening initiative that, on average, enables white to
score better than black.

Having 'the move' is a definite advantage... except in the case of zugzwang. I
believe commercial Fruit gives a bonus for the side to move. I experimented with
this kind of bonus myself but didn't see any measurable improvement. Still, it
stands to reason that if you want to differentiate between two identical
positions with the only difference being the side-to-move then a good eval would
value 'having the move' higher.... (except zugzwang positions of course)

In chessic terms I'd give a bonus for being on move as a 1/5 of a pawn... but
I'm just a club-standard player.... and it would differ depending on the phase
of the game...

What conclusion do you draw from White's opening advantage?

Ross





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