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Subject: Re: Statistics... The Magic Numbers W=55% B=45%

Author: Peter Skinner

Date: 05:29:13 01/29/06

Go up one level in this thread


On January 29, 2006 at 06:49:47, chandler yergin wrote:

>Coincidence?   I think not.
>You decide.
>
>Engine vs Engine Tournaments   CEGT
>What are the results?
> "Computer Engine Grande Tournaments"
>Last Posting 2005 showed a Total of 68319 games
>had been played. How did it come out?
>
>White Wins       1-0      25715   (37.6%)
>Black Wins        0-1      19580   (28.7%)
>Draws           1/2 1/2    23024    (33.7%)
>
>White Perf.   =  54.5%
>Black Perf.    =  45.5%
>
>What are the Stats by ECO Code?
>Here you go-
>http://web.telia.com/~u85924109/ssdf/
>
>http://home.interact.se/~w100107/openings.htm
>OPENINGS
>
>"Based on 18 947 games I've looked at some statistics.
>The score for white is 55-45 and an average game is 70 moves.
>I've divided the games in most played openings:"
>For the Comps; games  by ECO Code:
>ECO A         =  9068     (13.3%)
>ECO B         =  17619     (25.8%)
>ECO C         =  10987     (16.1%)
>ECO D         =  14939     (21.9%)
>ECO E         =  12718     (10.6%)
>
>Perf.  White   =  54.5%
>Perf. Black     =  45.5%
>
>
>What if a million or so games have been played?
>
>In my Mega DATABASE 99 Total Games Played  =  1114332
>Results:
>
>White Wins         1-0        413653   =    (37%)
>Black Wins         0-1       318394   =    (28%)
>Draws              1/2 1/2    381453  =     (35%)
>
>White Perf.       =   54%
>Black Perf.       =   46%
>
>
>
>What if more tests were run and games played you say?
>
>Here are the Stats from Big Database 2003
>Total Games          =        2311756
>1-0              =  883180   =  38%
>0-1              =  700303   =  30%
>1/2  1/2         =  726673   =  32%
>White perf.    =  54%
>Black perf.    =  46%
>
>There's those Magic Numbers again...
>
>Taken at random
>
>TWIC 578  1612 Games
>1-0        624 games        total 55%
>0-1        478 games        total 45%
>
>TWIC 580   710 games
>1-0   243 games            total 55%
>0-1   179 games            total 45%
>
>TWIC 582     1115 games
>1-0     434 games           total 55%
>0-1     330 games           total 45%
>
>TWIC 583 games
>1-0      744 games          total 55%
>0-1      561 games          total 45%
>
>TWIC 674    1245 games
>1-0      475 games         total 55%
>0-1      350 games         total 45%
>
>Let's see how some Great Players of the Past did.
>
>Marshall, F  Total Games played  = 1364
>1-0       =  523               total 55%
>0-1       =  392               total 45%
>1/2       =  448
>
>Alekhine,A   Total Games played  = 1606
>1-0       = 670                total 56%
>0-1       = 476                total 44%
>1/2 1/2 = 459
>
>Capablanca, J Total Games played  = 570
>1-0       = 185                total 54%
>0-1       = 136                total 46%
>1/2 1/2 = 248
>
>Lasker, E    Total Games played    = 1063
>1-0         = 424                total 53%
>0-1        = 367                 total 47%
>1/2 1/2  = 269
>
>Tal, M         Total Games played    = 2868
>1-0           = 922              total 56%
>0-1           = 602              total 44%
>1/2 1/2       = 1343
>
>Fischer, R   Total Games played   = 2167
>1-0           = 850              total 55%
>0-1           = 637              total 45%
>1/2 1/2       = 677
>
>Spassky, B    Total Games played  = 2113
>1-0          = 531              total 55%
>0-1          = 537              total 45%
>1/2 1/2      = 1245
>
>Smyslov, V      Total Games played = 2579
>1-0          = 741              total 55%
>0-1          = 459              total 45%
>1/2 1/2      = 1379
>
>So what's going on?

I am _not_ stating your data is invalid, just the purpose you are using it for.

An engine _can_ be optimized/strengthened/tweaked without using a book, and thus
the ECO code data would be useless in that instance.

Peter



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