Author: Dann Corbit
Date: 12:47:31 02/22/06
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On February 22, 2006 at 15:45:12, Dann Corbit wrote: >It would be nice to know if a particular opening position underperforms or >overperforms. > >By that I mean, given the Elo of the players that reached the position, and the >Elo of the opponents that reached the position, did the position for the side to >move exceed expectations or fall below expectations? > >I don't think it is as simple as taking the average Elo of the side to move and >the average Elo of the opponent side, and then examining the win percentage and >seeing if it meets the Elo estimate within error bounds. > >I guess that we would have to examine all of the pairs. > >Does any statisical genius have a solid model for this analysis? Suppose that we have some opening position and it scores 40%. Sounds pretty bad. But now suppose that the position has 100 games and is always played by an engine 400 Elo below the opponent. In this case, instead of underperforming it is overperforming stupendously. Just looking at won/loss/draw is not nearly good enough.
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