Author: Dann Corbit
Date: 11:12:06 02/23/06
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On February 23, 2006 at 08:18:57, Rafael Andrist wrote: >On February 22, 2006 at 15:47:31, Dann Corbit wrote: > >>On February 22, 2006 at 15:45:12, Dann Corbit wrote: >> >>>It would be nice to know if a particular opening position underperforms or >>>overperforms. >>> >>>By that I mean, given the Elo of the players that reached the position, and the >>>Elo of the opponents that reached the position, did the position for the side to >>>move exceed expectations or fall below expectations? >>> >>>I don't think it is as simple as taking the average Elo of the side to move and >>>the average Elo of the opponent side, and then examining the win percentage and >>>seeing if it meets the Elo estimate within error bounds. >>> >>>I guess that we would have to examine all of the pairs. >>> >>>Does any statisical genius have a solid model for this analysis? >> >>Suppose that we have some opening position and it scores 40%. Sounds pretty >>bad. >> >>But now suppose that the position has 100 games and is always played by an >>engine 400 Elo below the opponent. In this case, instead of underperforming it >>is overperforming stupendously. Just looking at won/loss/draw is not nearly >>good enough. > >But on the other hand, the opening may not be good enough anyway - and therefore >higher-rated players will avoid it... Unless they are computers.
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