Author: Rafael Andrist
Date: 11:28:40 02/23/06
Go up one level in this thread
On February 23, 2006 at 08:59:20, Uri Blass wrote: >On February 22, 2006 at 15:45:12, Dann Corbit wrote: > >>It would be nice to know if a particular opening position underperforms or >>overperforms. >> >>By that I mean, given the Elo of the players that reached the position, and the >>Elo of the opponents that reached the position, did the position for the side to >>move exceed expectations or fall below expectations? >> >>I don't think it is as simple as taking the average Elo of the side to move and >>the average Elo of the opponent side, and then examining the win percentage and >>seeing if it meets the Elo estimate within error bounds. >> >>I guess that we would have to examine all of the pairs. >> >>Does any statisical genius have a solid model for this analysis? > >I think that you can simply calculate the expected result for every pair based >on the average result of players with that rating difference. > >you can caluclate the sum of the expected results and compare to the sum of the >obsetved results. This works for a good first guess. But you assume the standard deviation for all the players' ELO is the same, which is of course not the case.
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