Author: Dann Corbit
Date: 12:12:52 02/23/06
Go up one level in this thread
On February 23, 2006 at 14:32:10, Rafael Andrist wrote: >On February 23, 2006 at 14:12:06, Dann Corbit wrote: > >>On February 23, 2006 at 08:18:57, Rafael Andrist wrote: >> >>>On February 22, 2006 at 15:47:31, Dann Corbit wrote: >>> >>>>On February 22, 2006 at 15:45:12, Dann Corbit wrote: >>>> >>>>>It would be nice to know if a particular opening position underperforms or >>>>>overperforms. >>>>> >>>>>By that I mean, given the Elo of the players that reached the position, and the >>>>>Elo of the opponents that reached the position, did the position for the side to >>>>>move exceed expectations or fall below expectations? >>>>> >>>>>I don't think it is as simple as taking the average Elo of the side to move and >>>>>the average Elo of the opponent side, and then examining the win percentage and >>>>>seeing if it meets the Elo estimate within error bounds. >>>>> >>>>>I guess that we would have to examine all of the pairs. >>>>> >>>>>Does any statisical genius have a solid model for this analysis? >>>> >>>>Suppose that we have some opening position and it scores 40%. Sounds pretty >>>>bad. >>>> >>>>But now suppose that the position has 100 games and is always played by an >>>>engine 400 Elo below the opponent. In this case, instead of underperforming it >>>>is overperforming stupendously. Just looking at won/loss/draw is not nearly >>>>good enough. >>> >>>But on the other hand, the opening may not be good enough anyway - and therefore >>>higher-rated players will avoid it... >> >>Unless they are computers. > >Still, what does the number tell you? If the opening is just bad, then it will >perhaps only say the weaker players did perhaps better than expected because >they managed to draw a lost game? It may also be that the openings are considered bad because nobody has found the clever novelty yet. Openings wax and wane over time, when new things are discovered.
This page took 0 seconds to execute
Last modified: Thu, 15 Apr 21 08:11:13 -0700
Current Computer Chess Club Forums at Talkchess. This site by Sean Mintz.