Author: Albert Silver
Date: 07:57:36 05/14/99
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On May 14, 1999 at 05:24:20, Peter Hegger wrote:
>Hello
>Let's say that today's best programs, Fritz, CM6000, junior etc.. are playing at
>the 2450 level at 40/2 when they've got hardware capable of knocking off .5M
>nps. I don't think this is too outlandish an assumption.
>If you double this speed 8 times over you arrive at 128M nps. This is in the
>same ballpark as this new proposed screamer of Hsu's which it is estimated will
>knock off 120M nps on a multi-processor platform.
>I've seen in other threads that doubling speed will increase performance
>anywhere from 30-70 points per doubling. For argument's sake and to split the
>difference I'll assume that 50 is likely pretty close. Using 2450 as the base
>this would translate into an elo of 2850 give or take a bit.
These numbers never actually work that way. I remember reading that prior to the
first Deep Blue match, the DB team had been estimating it at over 3000 elo (or
more) based on similar calculations. The match was quite the cold shower I would
say, as it was clearly NOT playing 200 points above GK.
Albert Silver
>Is it really possible that a machine which is stronger (marginally) rating wise
>than the world champion is right around the corner. Or am I missing something
>here in making this estimate?
>In any event I'd love to see Kasparov tackle this baby in a 40/2 24 game match.
>Bets anyone? :)
>Regards
>Peter
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