Author: José Carlos
Date: 08:07:36 05/14/99
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On May 14, 1999 at 05:24:20, Peter Hegger wrote: >Hello >Let's say that today's best programs, Fritz, CM6000, junior etc.. are playing at >the 2450 level at 40/2 when they've got hardware capable of knocking off .5M >nps. I don't think this is too outlandish an assumption. >If you double this speed 8 times over you arrive at 128M nps. This is in the >same ballpark as this new proposed screamer of Hsu's which it is estimated will >knock off 120M nps on a multi-processor platform. >I've seen in other threads that doubling speed will increase performance >anywhere from 30-70 points per doubling. For argument's sake and to split the >difference I'll assume that 50 is likely pretty close. Using 2450 as the base >this would translate into an elo of 2850 give or take a bit. >Is it really possible that a machine which is stronger (marginally) rating wise >than the world champion is right around the corner. Or am I missing something >here in making this estimate? >In any event I'd love to see Kasparov tackle this baby in a 40/2 24 game match. >Bets anyone? :) >Regards >Peter The increment of peroformance doubling speed is more little as speed increases. Doubling speed allows, usually, to go one ply deeper. So it's very different to go from ply 7 to ply 8 than to go from ply 50 to ply 51, isn't it? José C.
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