Author: blass uri
Date: 21:29:48 05/14/99
Go up one level in this thread
On May 14, 1999 at 16:58:03, Robert Hyatt wrote: >On May 14, 1999 at 11:07:36, José Carlos wrote: > >>On May 14, 1999 at 05:24:20, Peter Hegger wrote: >> >>>Hello >>>Let's say that today's best programs, Fritz, CM6000, junior etc.. are playing at >>>the 2450 level at 40/2 when they've got hardware capable of knocking off .5M >>>nps. I don't think this is too outlandish an assumption. >>>If you double this speed 8 times over you arrive at 128M nps. This is in the >>>same ballpark as this new proposed screamer of Hsu's which it is estimated will >>>knock off 120M nps on a multi-processor platform. >>>I've seen in other threads that doubling speed will increase performance >>>anywhere from 30-70 points per doubling. For argument's sake and to split the >>>difference I'll assume that 50 is likely pretty close. Using 2450 as the base >>>this would translate into an elo of 2850 give or take a bit. >>>Is it really possible that a machine which is stronger (marginally) rating wise >>>than the world champion is right around the corner. Or am I missing something >>>here in making this estimate? >>>In any event I'd love to see Kasparov tackle this baby in a 40/2 24 game match. >>>Bets anyone? :) >>>Regards >>>Peter >> >> >> The increment of peroformance doubling speed is more little as speed >>increases. Doubling speed allows, usually, to go one ply deeper. So it's very >>different to go from ply 7 to ply 8 than to go from ply 50 to ply 51, isn't it? >> >> José C. > > >You need to read the ICCA Journal. There is lots of evidence (now) that >going deeper does indeed lead to better play.7 to 8 is clearly going to do >more than going from 50 to 51. But 7 to 8 might not be any better than >going from 14 to 15 or even 19 to 20, based on experiments both I and Ernst >did. Programs _still_ find better moves at deeper depths, even when the >depth is increased from 14 to 15 or 15 to 16. I know that programs change their mind from depth 14 to depth 15 the question is if it changes the result of the game. I think that from going from depth 7 to 8 there is a bigger chance to change the result of the game then in going from depth 14 to 15. Uri
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