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Subject: Re: Correction: MCP9 is coming!

Author: James Robertson

Date: 17:46:32 05/17/99

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On May 17, 1999 at 03:08:59, Christophe Theron wrote:

>On May 17, 1999 at 02:45:51, Jouni Uski wrote:
>
>>According to Chessbits magazine MCP9 beta is getting 70% against Hiarcs7 and
>>also won Fritz5.32 by 4-1!
>
>4-1???
>
>Is that a scientific experiment?
>
>Has the 70% score against Hiarcs7 been done in a 5 games match too?
>
>Remember that in order to compare chess programs that are close in strength you
>need A LOT of games. I would give no credit to a match with less than 30 games.
>If they are very close, you will not be able to decide even after 100 games.
>
>
>>Is this book tuning or what?
>
>I would call this lack of games.
>
>
>>BTW I remember funny
>>article in CSS magazine after Paris WMCCC - almost EVERY programmer told, that
>>current beta has positive score against ALL opponents, heh, heh, heh...
>
>You get the point. :)
>
>
>    Christophe

I did some calculations to see how many games I needed to play to accurately
estimate different version strengths with my program. The result was rather
discouraging: 360 games must be played to be 95% confident that the sample
percentage of points is within [I cannot remeber, but this sounds right] 5% of
the true percentage.

James



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