Author: José de Jesús García Ruvalcaba
Date: 16:23:03 06/08/99
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On June 08, 1999 at 17:31:47, Christoph Fieberg wrote: >Humans are far away from playing perfect chess but computers will come more and >more closer to it. At the turn of the century the best computer (Deep Blue) and >the best human (G. Kasparov) are roughly at the same level of about Elo 2800. I >assume that this will not last very long and that in the next 20 years the best >computer (X1) will score 80% against the best human meaning that will see chess >at Elo level 3040. > >I could imagine that if chess software and computer hardware will steadly be >improved one of the next chess computer generation (X2) will beat the >predecessor (X1) finally also with a 80% score pushing the Elo level up to 3280. > >X3 will do the same with X2 (Elo level then 3520), X4 will do the same with X3 >(Elo level then 3760) and so on and so on. X5 reachs Elo 4000 and after some >hundred years X30 will gain Elo 10000! > >If it was ever possible that computers played absolutely perfect chess the >MAXIMUM Elo number would be determined. > >The gnawing question is: HOW HIGH IS THE MAXIMUM ELO NUMBER? > >Or in other words: How far are humans and computers away from playing perfect >chess? > >Regards, >Christoph Fieberg The ratings are meaningless by themselves. What is meaningful is the rating difference between two players in the same rating list. If you add the same number to all the ratings in a given list, the list still has the same meaning as the rating differences are the same. It is even difficult to compare the same list over different periods of time, as inflation and deflation do occur. Also, it is not clear what does mean «perfect chess». I take for granted that it implies not making mistakes (moves that change the value of the game); but chess ability also includes inducing mistakes by the opponent. José.
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