Author: James Robertson
Date: 11:20:57 06/21/99
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On June 21, 1999 at 13:48:03, Dann Corbit wrote: >On June 21, 1999 at 13:44:38, James Robertson wrote: > >>Could someone please calculate the odds that the 4 non-supercomputers would >>score an even result with these 4 GMs? If the computers are just barely GM >>strength (2500) and the humans are fairly strong GMs (2600), the humans should >>score 64% on average. If the computers are rated 2450, the GMs should score 70%, >>and the humans should score 75% against 2400 players. >> >>But the computers had white in 3 games, and white scores 60% against black. If >>the odds were calculated, I'll bet it would be something like the computers have >>a 35% chance of scoring the result we saw. >With the number of games played, the uncertainty is so high that I do not think >you can provide a reasonable calculation. Look at how many games the SSDF plays >before they even post a result. There is a *reason* for that. I know, if we are trying to do some sort of confidence interval. But these percentages are _established_. IE if we flip a previously unflipped coin, we still are able to predict the odds that we will get heads. Anand has never played Morozevich, but because of their ratings we can predict Anand's probability of success. It should be possible to do that here. James
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