Author: James Robertson
Date: 12:42:24 06/21/99
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On June 21, 1999 at 14:26:01, Dann Corbit wrote: >On June 21, 1999 at 14:20:57, James Robertson wrote: > >>On June 21, 1999 at 13:48:03, Dann Corbit wrote: >> >>>On June 21, 1999 at 13:44:38, James Robertson wrote: >>> >>>>Could someone please calculate the odds that the 4 non-supercomputers would >>>>score an even result with these 4 GMs? If the computers are just barely GM >>>>strength (2500) and the humans are fairly strong GMs (2600), the humans should >>>>score 64% on average. If the computers are rated 2450, the GMs should score 70%, >>>>and the humans should score 75% against 2400 players. >>>> >>>>But the computers had white in 3 games, and white scores 60% against black. If >>>>the odds were calculated, I'll bet it would be something like the computers have >>>>a 35% chance of scoring the result we saw. >>>With the number of games played, the uncertainty is so high that I do not think >>>you can provide a reasonable calculation. Look at how many games the SSDF plays >>>before they even post a result. There is a *reason* for that. >> >>I know, if we are trying to do some sort of confidence interval. But these >>percentages are _established_. IE if we flip a previously unflipped coin, we >>still are able to predict the odds that we will get heads. Anand has never >>played Morozevich, but because of their ratings we can predict Anand's >>probability of success. >> >>It should be possible to do that here. >Sure, but with Anand and Morozevich there are *thousands* of games against rated >opponents. Here we have 7 games per program. Quite frankly, we can't say >anything with certainty about how strong any of them are. Perhaps you could say >that the ELO of the programs is 2600 +/- 2000. How's that? I didn't make myself clear. If the programs are GM strength then they must be at least 2500. I wanted to see what the odds are of a 2500 group of players againt a 2600 group of players, or if they are just IM strength, what are the odds then? James
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