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Subject: Re: Poll Question for "If Computers are finally as Strong as GM's"

Author: blass uri

Date: 00:03:00 06/24/99

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On June 24, 1999 at 00:39:39, Sarah Bird wrote:

>On June 23, 1999 at 18:22:28, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>
>>On June 23, 1999 at 00:37:10, Sarah Bird wrote:
>>
>>>On June 22, 1999 at 20:12:22, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>>>
>>>>On June 22, 1999 at 15:41:58, Howard Exner wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>I think different versions of Junior have logged in
>>>>>40/2 tournament games against strong humans. Anyone have stats on these
>>>>>results? I vaguely recall it doing quite well even on slower hardware.
>>>>>
>>>>>What is the time control for the upcoming Karpov - Shredder game?
>>>>>
>>>>>Slowly a collection of tournament condition
>>>>>40/2 encounters will put to rest the speculation.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>Just so we follow formal 'sampling theory' here.  IE we do _not_ want to pick
>>>>a good result by Junior without picking all the bad results.  Easier is to take
>>>>these Rebel games and other acceptable games as they are played, rather than
>>>>going back.  Because to sample backward you have to include _all_ the data
>>>>points, else 'cherry-picking' will greatly bias the result...
>>>
>>>Following excerpt is from IM Larry Kaufman's review of Hiarcs 7
>>>"HIARCS, by Applied Computer Concepts Ltd. with chess engine by British
>>>programmer Mark Uniacke, has been one of the very strongest programs for the
>>>last several years. The current version, 7.0, is apparently no exception. The
>>>latest Swedish rating list (the most widely accepted standard for comparing
>>>computer programs) ranks it third, just an insignificant 9 rating points behind
>>>the co-leaders (CM 6000 and Fritz 5.32) and substantially ahead of the latest
>>>rated versions of such strong programs as Junior, Rebel, MChess Pro, and Genius.
>>>Moreover it is up an impressive 43 points from its predecessor, Hiarcs 6. To
>>>fully appreciate just how strong Hiarcs 7 is, consider that its Swedish rating
>>>of 2567 was earned on hardware (200 MHz MMX) markedly inferior to the latest
>>>models (450-500 MHz). Moreover, the Swedish ratings are particularly severe,
>>>almost certainly more conservative than FIDE ratings and far below USCF ratings.
>>>These ratings are based on 40/2 games with other computers, with the overall
>>>level of the list based on games with human competition some years ago. Although
>>>I suspect that the level of the top computers may be a bit overstated now due to
>>>failure to recalibrate the list based on today's GM level computers, this should
>>>be offset by the severity of Swedish ratings in the past, so my guess is that
>>>the 2567 rating at 200 MHz would hold up in FIDE competition today, which would
>>>imply a FIDE rating over 2600 on today's fast machines. In other words, HIARCS 7
>>>plays tournament chess on a par with the top five players in the U.S. This in
>>>turn implies that at action chess (game/30') HIARCS 7 probably plays around 2700
>>>FIDE level, on a par with the number ten player in the world, and should play
>>>blitz better than Kasparov, Kramnik, and Anand."
>>
>>
>>Larry is entitled to his opinion.  However, he was writing about 2400 programs
>>in the days of the 486/33 too.  And while he can write about them, it doesn't
>>mean that they are there yet.  Lets just wait for a while and see whether the
>>gap widens (5 to 3 so far) or gets closer, or if the programs can actually pass
>>the humans...
>
>Robert, my own personal opinion is that they are not at that level however I
>always respect the rights of others to believe that they are. I honestly feel
>that if computers were playing in high rated events say cat 15 and up that GM's
>would eat them up after some heavy preparation against playing computers. Which
>means if computers were allowed to participate in these events GM's would be
>forced into preparation in the same way they now prepare lines for other GM's.
>Sarah.

If they play against the commercials then you may be right but if they play
against programs like shredder4 or Deep Junior  that are not commercial now
then they will have a problem because they cannot play against it at home and
the programmers can  also do opening preperation and do changes in the  program
between games(based on the oppponent and on the previous games).

Uri



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