Author: Peter Hegger
Date: 12:13:59 07/14/99
Hello
In 1989, at the world computer chess championship in Edmonton, David Levy asked
participants:
"In what year do you think a chess program will be able to defeat the human
world champion?"
Here are the answers.
Year Names
1992 Gyula Horvath, Monty Newborn
1993 John McCarthy
1994 Hans Berliner, Marty Hirsch, Feng-hsuing Hsu
1995 Murray Campbell, Larry Kaufmann, David Kittinger, Danny Kopec, Donald
Mitchie, David Slate, Mike Valvo
1997 John Stanbeck
1998 Kevin O'connell
1999 Ed Felton, Tom Pronk, Sidney Samole, Claude Shannon, Jos Uiterwijk
2000 Robert Hyatt, GM Kevin Spraggett, Victor Vikhrev, Jaap van den Herik
2001 Jurg Nivergelt, Mark Taylor
2002 IM Julio Kaplan
2005 Richard Lang, Pierre Nolet, Ard van Bergen
2008 Harry Nelson
2010 Don Dailey, Ossi Weiner
2011 Lars Hjorth
2013 Tony Scherzer
2014 David Levy
2020 Tony Marsland
2025 Dap Hartmann
2030 Franz Morsch
2040 Jonathan Schaeffer
2050 Harm Bakker
2056 Helmut Horacek
NEVER David Cahlander
The mean average of these predictions is the year 2005.
I thought it might be interesting to formulate a new opinion poll question
asking "In what year do you think a computer chess program will be able to
defeat the human world champion in a 20 game 40/2 match?"
Any feedback is welcome.
Regards
Peter
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