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Subject: 1989 opinion poll and idea for new poll question

Author: Peter Hegger

Date: 12:13:59 07/14/99


Hello
In 1989, at the world computer chess championship in Edmonton, David Levy asked
participants:
"In what year do you think a chess program will be able to defeat the human
world champion?"
Here are the answers.
Year    Names
1992    Gyula Horvath, Monty Newborn
1993    John McCarthy
1994    Hans Berliner, Marty Hirsch, Feng-hsuing Hsu
1995    Murray Campbell, Larry Kaufmann, David Kittinger, Danny Kopec, Donald
       Mitchie, David Slate, Mike Valvo
1997    John Stanbeck
1998    Kevin O'connell
1999    Ed Felton, Tom Pronk, Sidney Samole, Claude Shannon, Jos Uiterwijk
2000    Robert Hyatt, GM Kevin Spraggett, Victor Vikhrev, Jaap van den Herik
2001    Jurg Nivergelt, Mark Taylor
2002    IM Julio Kaplan
2005    Richard Lang, Pierre Nolet, Ard van Bergen
2008    Harry Nelson
2010    Don Dailey, Ossi Weiner
2011    Lars Hjorth
2013    Tony Scherzer
2014    David Levy
2020    Tony Marsland
2025    Dap Hartmann
2030    Franz Morsch
2040    Jonathan Schaeffer
2050    Harm Bakker
2056    Helmut Horacek
NEVER   David Cahlander

The mean average of these predictions is the year 2005.
I thought it might be interesting to formulate a new opinion poll question
asking "In what year do you think a computer chess program will be able to
defeat the human world champion in a 20 game 40/2 match?"
Any feedback is welcome.
Regards
Peter





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