Author: José de Jesús García Ruvalcaba
Date: 14:25:51 07/14/99
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On July 14, 1999 at 15:13:59, Peter Hegger wrote: >Hello >In 1989, at the world computer chess championship in Edmonton, David Levy asked >participants: >"In what year do you think a chess program will be able to defeat the human >world champion?" >Here are the answers. >Year Names >1992 Gyula Horvath, Monty Newborn >1993 John McCarthy >1994 Hans Berliner, Marty Hirsch, Feng-hsuing Hsu >1995 Murray Campbell, Larry Kaufmann, David Kittinger, Danny Kopec, Donald > Mitchie, David Slate, Mike Valvo >1997 John Stanbeck >1998 Kevin O'connell >1999 Ed Felton, Tom Pronk, Sidney Samole, Claude Shannon, Jos Uiterwijk >2000 Robert Hyatt, GM Kevin Spraggett, Victor Vikhrev, Jaap van den Herik >2001 Jurg Nivergelt, Mark Taylor >2002 IM Julio Kaplan >2005 Richard Lang, Pierre Nolet, Ard van Bergen >2008 Harry Nelson >2010 Don Dailey, Ossi Weiner >2011 Lars Hjorth >2013 Tony Scherzer >2014 David Levy >2020 Tony Marsland >2025 Dap Hartmann >2030 Franz Morsch >2040 Jonathan Schaeffer >2050 Harm Bakker >2056 Helmut Horacek >NEVER David Cahlander > >The mean average of these predictions is the year 2005. How did you average the «NEVER»? >I thought it might be interesting to formulate a new opinion poll question >asking "In what year do you think a computer chess program will be able to >defeat the human world champion in a 20 game 40/2 match?" >Any feedback is welcome. >Regards >Peter
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