Author: Peter Kappler
Date: 21:27:47 07/14/99
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On July 14, 1999 at 16:25:12, Robert Hyatt wrote: >On July 14, 1999 at 15:13:59, Peter Hegger wrote: > >>Hello >>In 1989, at the world computer chess championship in Edmonton, David Levy asked >>participants: >>"In what year do you think a chess program will be able to defeat the human >>world champion?" >>Here are the answers. >>Year Names >>1992 Gyula Horvath, Monty Newborn >>1993 John McCarthy >>1994 Hans Berliner, Marty Hirsch, Feng-hsuing Hsu >>1995 Murray Campbell, Larry Kaufmann, David Kittinger, Danny Kopec, Donald >> Mitchie, David Slate, Mike Valvo >>1997 John Stanbeck >>1998 Kevin O'connell >>1999 Ed Felton, Tom Pronk, Sidney Samole, Claude Shannon, Jos Uiterwijk >>2000 Robert Hyatt, GM Kevin Spraggett, Victor Vikhrev, Jaap van den Herik >>2001 Jurg Nivergelt, Mark Taylor >>2002 IM Julio Kaplan >>2005 Richard Lang, Pierre Nolet, Ard van Bergen >>2008 Harry Nelson >>2010 Don Dailey, Ossi Weiner >>2011 Lars Hjorth >>2013 Tony Scherzer >>2014 David Levy >>2020 Tony Marsland >>2025 Dap Hartmann >>2030 Franz Morsch >>2040 Jonathan Schaeffer >>2050 Harm Bakker >>2056 Helmut Horacek >>NEVER David Cahlander >> >>The mean average of these predictions is the year 2005. >>I thought it might be interesting to formulate a new opinion poll question >>asking "In what year do you think a computer chess program will be able to >>defeat the human world champion in a 20 game 40/2 match?" >>Any feedback is welcome. >>Regards >>Peter > > >I'd answer 1998. I think DB would have beaten Kasparov in 20 games just >as it did in 6 games. He already had a fork stuck in him by game 5. He >was "done" I think... Surely this would not have been your prediction before that match... --Peter
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