Author: Robert Hyatt
Date: 14:31:57 07/15/99
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On July 15, 1999 at 00:27:47, Peter Kappler wrote: >On July 14, 1999 at 16:25:12, Robert Hyatt wrote: > >>On July 14, 1999 at 15:13:59, Peter Hegger wrote: >> >>>Hello >>>In 1989, at the world computer chess championship in Edmonton, David Levy asked >>>participants: >>>"In what year do you think a chess program will be able to defeat the human >>>world champion?" >>>Here are the answers. >>>Year Names >>>1992 Gyula Horvath, Monty Newborn >>>1993 John McCarthy >>>1994 Hans Berliner, Marty Hirsch, Feng-hsuing Hsu >>>1995 Murray Campbell, Larry Kaufmann, David Kittinger, Danny Kopec, Donald >>> Mitchie, David Slate, Mike Valvo >>>1997 John Stanbeck >>>1998 Kevin O'connell >>>1999 Ed Felton, Tom Pronk, Sidney Samole, Claude Shannon, Jos Uiterwijk >>>2000 Robert Hyatt, GM Kevin Spraggett, Victor Vikhrev, Jaap van den Herik >>>2001 Jurg Nivergelt, Mark Taylor >>>2002 IM Julio Kaplan >>>2005 Richard Lang, Pierre Nolet, Ard van Bergen >>>2008 Harry Nelson >>>2010 Don Dailey, Ossi Weiner >>>2011 Lars Hjorth >>>2013 Tony Scherzer >>>2014 David Levy >>>2020 Tony Marsland >>>2025 Dap Hartmann >>>2030 Franz Morsch >>>2040 Jonathan Schaeffer >>>2050 Harm Bakker >>>2056 Helmut Horacek >>>NEVER David Cahlander >>> >>>The mean average of these predictions is the year 2005. >>>I thought it might be interesting to formulate a new opinion poll question >>>asking "In what year do you think a computer chess program will be able to >>>defeat the human world champion in a 20 game 40/2 match?" >>>Any feedback is welcome. >>>Regards >>>Peter >> >> >>I'd answer 1998. I think DB would have beaten Kasparov in 20 games just >>as it did in 6 games. He already had a fork stuck in him by game 5. He >>was "done" I think... > > >Surely this would not have been your prediction before that match... > >--Peter Nope... I originally guessed 2000. And thought before the match that Kasparov would win. But DB II was _much_ better than DB I. And with "hindsight" I think DB would have won a 20 game match.
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