Author: Peter Kappler
Date: 17:39:36 07/15/99
Go up one level in this thread
On July 15, 1999 at 17:31:57, Robert Hyatt wrote: >On July 15, 1999 at 00:27:47, Peter Kappler wrote: > >>On July 14, 1999 at 16:25:12, Robert Hyatt wrote: >> >>>On July 14, 1999 at 15:13:59, Peter Hegger wrote: >>> >>>>Hello >>>>In 1989, at the world computer chess championship in Edmonton, David Levy asked >>>>participants: >>>>"In what year do you think a chess program will be able to defeat the human >>>>world champion?" >>>>Here are the answers. >>>>Year Names >>>>1992 Gyula Horvath, Monty Newborn >>>>1993 John McCarthy >>>>1994 Hans Berliner, Marty Hirsch, Feng-hsuing Hsu >>>>1995 Murray Campbell, Larry Kaufmann, David Kittinger, Danny Kopec, Donald >>>> Mitchie, David Slate, Mike Valvo >>>>1997 John Stanbeck >>>>1998 Kevin O'connell >>>>1999 Ed Felton, Tom Pronk, Sidney Samole, Claude Shannon, Jos Uiterwijk >>>>2000 Robert Hyatt, GM Kevin Spraggett, Victor Vikhrev, Jaap van den Herik >>>>2001 Jurg Nivergelt, Mark Taylor >>>>2002 IM Julio Kaplan >>>>2005 Richard Lang, Pierre Nolet, Ard van Bergen >>>>2008 Harry Nelson >>>>2010 Don Dailey, Ossi Weiner >>>>2011 Lars Hjorth >>>>2013 Tony Scherzer >>>>2014 David Levy >>>>2020 Tony Marsland >>>>2025 Dap Hartmann >>>>2030 Franz Morsch >>>>2040 Jonathan Schaeffer >>>>2050 Harm Bakker >>>>2056 Helmut Horacek >>>>NEVER David Cahlander >>>> >>>>The mean average of these predictions is the year 2005. >>>>I thought it might be interesting to formulate a new opinion poll question >>>>asking "In what year do you think a computer chess program will be able to >>>>defeat the human world champion in a 20 game 40/2 match?" >>>>Any feedback is welcome. >>>>Regards >>>>Peter >>> >>> >>>I'd answer 1998. I think DB would have beaten Kasparov in 20 games just >>>as it did in 6 games. He already had a fork stuck in him by game 5. He >>>was "done" I think... >> >> >>Surely this would not have been your prediction before that match... >> >>--Peter > > > >Nope... I originally guessed 2000. Yes, but you were guessing when a machine would beat the World Champion in a single game, *not* a 20 game match. Very different scenarios... > And thought before the match that Kasparov > would win. But DB II was _much_ better than > DB I. And with "hindsight" I think DB would have won a 20 game match. Overall, I think Kasparov played better than DB in that match, but he was unable to convert good positions in games 3, 4, and 5. In Garry's entire career, he's probably never had 3 games in a row like that where he was significantly better, yet unable to push through to win. I think it demoralized and confused him, leading to the disaster in game 6. Hard to say if he would have regained his composure and fought back in a longer match. In a 20-game match, I'd still pick Kasparov to win. Guess we'll never know... --Peter
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