Author: Robert Hyatt
Date: 19:21:08 07/15/99
Go up one level in this thread
On July 15, 1999 at 20:39:36, Peter Kappler wrote: >On July 15, 1999 at 17:31:57, Robert Hyatt wrote: > >>On July 15, 1999 at 00:27:47, Peter Kappler wrote: >> >>>On July 14, 1999 at 16:25:12, Robert Hyatt wrote: >>> >>>>On July 14, 1999 at 15:13:59, Peter Hegger wrote: >>>> >>>>>Hello >>>>>In 1989, at the world computer chess championship in Edmonton, David Levy asked >>>>>participants: >>>>>"In what year do you think a chess program will be able to defeat the human >>>>>world champion?" >>>>>Here are the answers. >>>>>Year Names >>>>>1992 Gyula Horvath, Monty Newborn >>>>>1993 John McCarthy >>>>>1994 Hans Berliner, Marty Hirsch, Feng-hsuing Hsu >>>>>1995 Murray Campbell, Larry Kaufmann, David Kittinger, Danny Kopec, Donald >>>>> Mitchie, David Slate, Mike Valvo >>>>>1997 John Stanbeck >>>>>1998 Kevin O'connell >>>>>1999 Ed Felton, Tom Pronk, Sidney Samole, Claude Shannon, Jos Uiterwijk >>>>>2000 Robert Hyatt, GM Kevin Spraggett, Victor Vikhrev, Jaap van den Herik >>>>>2001 Jurg Nivergelt, Mark Taylor >>>>>2002 IM Julio Kaplan >>>>>2005 Richard Lang, Pierre Nolet, Ard van Bergen >>>>>2008 Harry Nelson >>>>>2010 Don Dailey, Ossi Weiner >>>>>2011 Lars Hjorth >>>>>2013 Tony Scherzer >>>>>2014 David Levy >>>>>2020 Tony Marsland >>>>>2025 Dap Hartmann >>>>>2030 Franz Morsch >>>>>2040 Jonathan Schaeffer >>>>>2050 Harm Bakker >>>>>2056 Helmut Horacek >>>>>NEVER David Cahlander >>>>> >>>>>The mean average of these predictions is the year 2005. >>>>>I thought it might be interesting to formulate a new opinion poll question >>>>>asking "In what year do you think a computer chess program will be able to >>>>>defeat the human world champion in a 20 game 40/2 match?" >>>>>Any feedback is welcome. >>>>>Regards >>>>>Peter >>>> >>>> >>>>I'd answer 1998. I think DB would have beaten Kasparov in 20 games just >>>>as it did in 6 games. He already had a fork stuck in him by game 5. He >>>>was "done" I think... >>> >>> >>>Surely this would not have been your prediction before that match... >>> >>>--Peter >> >> >> >>Nope... I originally guessed 2000. > >Yes, but you were guessing when a machine would beat the World Champion in a >single game, *not* a 20 game match. Very different scenarios... > Actually not. I believe at the time, we were talking about beating the world champion in a match, not a single game. We already thought that a single game was doable... several of us had already beaten GM players in 40/2hr type time controls... > >> And thought before the match that Kasparov >> would win. But DB II was _much_ better than >> DB I. And with "hindsight" I think DB would have won a 20 game match. > > >Overall, I think Kasparov played better than DB in that match, but he was unable >to convert good positions in games 3, 4, and 5. In Garry's entire career, he's >probably never had 3 games in a row like that where he was significantly better, >yet unable to push through to win. I think it demoralized and confused him, >leading to the disaster in game 6. Hard to say if he would have regained his >composure and fought back in a longer match. > >In a 20-game match, I'd still pick Kasparov to win. Guess we'll never know... > > >--Peter
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