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Subject: Re: 1989 opinion poll and idea for new poll question

Author: Robert Hyatt

Date: 20:01:18 07/15/99

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On July 15, 1999 at 18:02:00, KarinsDad wrote:

>On July 14, 1999 at 16:25:12, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>
>[snip]
>>>
>>>The mean average of these predictions is the year 2005.
>>>I thought it might be interesting to formulate a new opinion poll question
>>>asking "In what year do you think a computer chess program will be able to
>>>defeat the human world champion in a 20 game 40/2 match?"
>>>Any feedback is welcome.
>>>Regards
>>>Peter
>>
>>
>>I'd answer 1998.  I think DB would have beaten Kasparov in 20 games just
>>as it did in 6 games.  He already had a fork stuck in him by game 5.  He
>>was "done" I think...
>
>However, the question was "In what year do you think a computer chess program
>will be able to defeat the human world champion in a 20 game 40/2 match?".
>
>Since that did not happen in 1998 (regardless of reason), the question is still
>valid, but your answer is not.
>
>So, when DO you predict that a program WILL beat a world champion in a 20 game
>40/2 match?
>
>KarinsDad :)

if we discount Deep Blue, I would probably guess maybe 2010 as a first chance,
although this likely won't be a simple microcomputer program.  If Hsu delivers
his deep blue in a PC suit, I'd cut that to no more than 5 years from now.  If
we talk about commercial microprocessor 'desktop' machines only, I'd likely say
2020.



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