Author: Robert Hyatt
Date: 20:01:18 07/15/99
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On July 15, 1999 at 18:02:00, KarinsDad wrote: >On July 14, 1999 at 16:25:12, Robert Hyatt wrote: > >[snip] >>> >>>The mean average of these predictions is the year 2005. >>>I thought it might be interesting to formulate a new opinion poll question >>>asking "In what year do you think a computer chess program will be able to >>>defeat the human world champion in a 20 game 40/2 match?" >>>Any feedback is welcome. >>>Regards >>>Peter >> >> >>I'd answer 1998. I think DB would have beaten Kasparov in 20 games just >>as it did in 6 games. He already had a fork stuck in him by game 5. He >>was "done" I think... > >However, the question was "In what year do you think a computer chess program >will be able to defeat the human world champion in a 20 game 40/2 match?". > >Since that did not happen in 1998 (regardless of reason), the question is still >valid, but your answer is not. > >So, when DO you predict that a program WILL beat a world champion in a 20 game >40/2 match? > >KarinsDad :) if we discount Deep Blue, I would probably guess maybe 2010 as a first chance, although this likely won't be a simple microcomputer program. If Hsu delivers his deep blue in a PC suit, I'd cut that to no more than 5 years from now. If we talk about commercial microprocessor 'desktop' machines only, I'd likely say 2020.
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