Author: Robert Hyatt
Date: 11:32:48 07/16/99
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On July 16, 1999 at 13:21:14, Peter Hegger wrote: >On July 15, 1999 at 23:01:18, Robert Hyatt wrote: > >>On July 15, 1999 at 18:02:00, KarinsDad wrote: >> >>>On July 14, 1999 at 16:25:12, Robert Hyatt wrote: >>> >>>[snip] >>>>> >>>>>The mean average of these predictions is the year 2005. >>>>>I thought it might be interesting to formulate a new opinion poll question >>>>>asking "In what year do you think a computer chess program will be able to >>>>>defeat the human world champion in a 20 game 40/2 match?" >>>>>Any feedback is welcome. >>>>>Regards >>>>>Peter >>>> >>>> >>>>I'd answer 1998. I think DB would have beaten Kasparov in 20 games just >>>>as it did in 6 games. He already had a fork stuck in him by game 5. He >>>>was "done" I think... >>> >>>However, the question was "In what year do you think a computer chess program >>>will be able to defeat the human world champion in a 20 game 40/2 match?". >>> >>>Since that did not happen in 1998 (regardless of reason), the question is still >>>valid, but your answer is not. >>> >>>So, when DO you predict that a program WILL beat a world champion in a 20 game >>>40/2 match? >>> >>>KarinsDad :) >> >>if we discount Deep Blue, I would probably guess maybe 2010 as a first chance, >>although this likely won't be a simple microcomputer program. If Hsu delivers >>his deep blue in a PC suit, I'd cut that to no more than 5 years from now. If >>we talk about commercial microprocessor 'desktop' machines only, I'd likely say >>2020. > >Bob, some time ago you stated that when DB jr. is released as a 4 or 8 processor >PCI card (supposedly in the next year or two) that it would be *atleast* 400 >rating points stronger than any micro program currently available. Would not >such a set up smoke Kasparov in the hypothetical 2O game 40/2 match? Not IMHO. Remember that I have said that I believe that at 40/2hr games, the computers are playing at 2400-2450. 2800-2850 won't "smoke" kasparov at all. It will play with him evenly of course.
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