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Subject: Re: PREDICTION: GM's can draw 50% of games or more at 5 minutes vs comps if?

Author: KarinsDad

Date: 13:05:47 09/14/99

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On September 14, 1999 at 15:38:10, Robert Hyatt wrote:

[snip]
>
>If you are 400 rating points worse than crafty, you expect to score about 1
>point out of every 16.  Which could be 2 draws or 1 win.  A 1700 player, if I
>had to guess, is at least 600 points worse, which would mean 1 win of every 64
>games.  Or two draws.  Note that this is a rough estimate of 200 points meaning
>a 1-3 result, which is close but not exact.

I think that the Elo equations do not quite correspond accurately to
human/computer games. A major reason that a human player 600 points below
another human player can draw or win once in a blue moon is that the higher
rated player is "having a bad day" (stress, illness, fatigue, overconfidence,
distractions, whatever).

However, programs do not have a bad day in that sense.

I would think that a program rated 600 points above a human would almost always
(if not always) win against the human. Now, I am sure that some people will
disagree with this viewpoint, however, I think it is fairly accurate. I would be
surprised if a 1700 player could draw 1 game in 1000 from your Quad Xeon Crafty
(assuming full strength Crafty with EGTBs, no takebacks, etc.), even in standard
time controls.

I think the Elo equations are a closer approximate the closer a human and
computer are in playing strength since I think that programs are a LOT more
consistent in playing strength than most humans are (especially 1700 strength
humans). But, I do not think we have enough data yet (i.e. wide range of
human/computer games) in order to modify the Elo equations for humans vs.
computers.

KarinsDad :)



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