Author: KarinsDad
Date: 13:05:47 09/14/99
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On September 14, 1999 at 15:38:10, Robert Hyatt wrote: [snip] > >If you are 400 rating points worse than crafty, you expect to score about 1 >point out of every 16. Which could be 2 draws or 1 win. A 1700 player, if I >had to guess, is at least 600 points worse, which would mean 1 win of every 64 >games. Or two draws. Note that this is a rough estimate of 200 points meaning >a 1-3 result, which is close but not exact. I think that the Elo equations do not quite correspond accurately to human/computer games. A major reason that a human player 600 points below another human player can draw or win once in a blue moon is that the higher rated player is "having a bad day" (stress, illness, fatigue, overconfidence, distractions, whatever). However, programs do not have a bad day in that sense. I would think that a program rated 600 points above a human would almost always (if not always) win against the human. Now, I am sure that some people will disagree with this viewpoint, however, I think it is fairly accurate. I would be surprised if a 1700 player could draw 1 game in 1000 from your Quad Xeon Crafty (assuming full strength Crafty with EGTBs, no takebacks, etc.), even in standard time controls. I think the Elo equations are a closer approximate the closer a human and computer are in playing strength since I think that programs are a LOT more consistent in playing strength than most humans are (especially 1700 strength humans). But, I do not think we have enough data yet (i.e. wide range of human/computer games) in order to modify the Elo equations for humans vs. computers. KarinsDad :)
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