Author: Robert Hyatt
Date: 22:25:25 09/25/99
Go up one level in this thread
On September 26, 1999 at 00:47:44, Ricardo Gibert wrote: >On September 25, 1999 at 23:20:02, Robert Hyatt wrote: > >>On September 25, 1999 at 12:47:38, Christophe Theron wrote: >> >>> >>> >>>I think we agree here. That's why I prefer not to use them, as they require 64 >>>processors. I like the idea that my program can take advantage of any processor >>>I compile for, even if it's not a 64 bits one. >>> >>>There are hundreds of millions of 16 and 32 bits PCs in the world today. How >>>many 64 bits PCs? NONE, ZERO, NIL, NADA. >>> >> >> >>this is wrong. Ask bruce as he owns a PC with a 533 mhz alpha in it, made >>by Polywell. There are several such machines. PC magazine has even covered >>them in detail. >> >> >>>It will take several years (maybe 10) before the number of 64 bits PCs becomes >>>larger than the number of 16 and 32 bits ones. >>> >> >>folks were saying that about the 386 not replacing the 286 for most businesses >>too. Care to guess how many 286's are left? :) >> >> >>> >>> >>>>And whether you like/believe it or not, 64 bit machines >>>>are coming. >>> >>> >>>The problem is not if I like it or not. >>> >>>It's crazy to ask millions of people to change their computers to exploit a 64 >>>bits chess program, when they already have a superb 300 or 400MHz PC that in >>>many countries costs much more than a month of salary, and that is able to give >>>them master-level analysis... >>> >>>And it is misleading to tell them that they will have better chess programs when >>>64 bits processors are out just because bitboard programs will exploit it. Non >>>bitboard programs will be stronger too on this architecture and you won't make >>>the difference just with bitboards. >>> >>> >>> >>>>And they will be the standard PC in a few more years. 10 years >>>>ago, people were using your same words, with the target divided by 2: "Why >>>>would I ever throw away my 16 bit 286 cpu? Those 32 bit machines are only >>>>useful for high-end applications..." >>> >>> >>>You live in a country where only a fraction of your monthly salary is enough to >>>buy a new powerful personal computer. >>> >>>Of course you know it's not the case everywhere in the world. >>> >>>So maybe you can easily erase 16 and 32 bits computers from your memory as soon >>>as Intel produces a 64 bits processor, but there are many people in the world >>>who will stick to 16 and 32 bits for 10 years or more. >> >> >> >>that is crazy. How many people do you know with 286 computers? they are >>10 years old. How many do you know with 486 computers? They are 5 years old. >>How many do you know with p5 pentium machines? they are 4 years old. How >>about pentium pros? 3 years. Pentium II? 1.5, pentium III? < 1 year. >> >>People replace technology _all_ the time. I don't know of _anybody_ that >>doesn't have at least a pentium CPU. Which means _no_ machines I know of are >>over 3 years old. These are home computers. Office computers. Business >>computers. Game computers. Etc. > >Vast majority of the machines at my job are 486s, which are getting replaced >gradually. There are about 100 PCs hooked up on our WAN. With the the exception >of a few "hotrods" (P2s, P3s) , which we have because they are sometimes useful >(graphics processing by marketing, special long running reports & database >rebuilds), only the servers & citrix boxes use the latest and the greatest >hardware (like quad xeons, etc). Unlike what you would like to think, businesses >are not fond of throwing away money for nothing. > of course not. But computers are cheaper than people. By a factor of almost 100. Makes a lot of sense to improve an expensive person's productivity by upgrading a computer. We just had 50+ computers donated to a networking lab we have. These machines were everything between P5/90 to pentium pro/200's. They were donated because the business using them was upgrading to PIII/600's. The point is that at least in the USA, 486's are _not_ being used heavily. They are nearly impossible to find. UAB will sell you a pallet full of them by the pound, as our warehouse is full of retired 386/486 and even older pentium machines, by the hundreds. Coming out of academic departments, out of the hospital, out of the business offices, etc. As far as chess goes, I can't begin to count the number of PIII machines on the chess servers... and these are machines ie people's homes. We are buying PIII/600 boxes for under $1500 now... Ask Intel how many chips they have sold. That will give you a perspective on how many older machines are being replaced. The number is _huge_.
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