Author: Robert Hyatt
Date: 20:07:06 10/06/99
Go up one level in this thread
On October 06, 1999 at 18:20:33, KarinsDad wrote: >On October 06, 1999 at 18:05:31, Dave Gomboc wrote: > >>On October 06, 1999 at 16:10:52, KarinsDad wrote: >> >>>On October 06, 1999 at 15:57:14, Dave Gomboc wrote: >>> >>>[snip] >>>> >>>>Ratings predict results. The Canadian system is arguably MORE accurate at >>>>predicting results than the US system for this reason, but certainly not less. >>>> >>>>Dave >>> >>>How so (that is really confusing)? >>> >>>KarinsDad :) >> >>Because the ratings are tied to the results of all pairings made, not just those >>games where both people showed up. >> > >Dave, > >Maybe I am just being dense but, yeah so? > >The fact is that any forfeit can lower or raise a person's rating by as much as >32 points (in the US). But, that person did not REALLY deserve such a raise or >lowering. Let's take an example: > >Say two 1600 players are supposed to play, but in the last round, one gets in a >car accident (he is not injured, he just cannot make it to the tournament) and >forfeits. Nobody knows why he forfeited, so the TD sends in the pairings to the >federation. > >These two players are both 1600 (let's assume that they both maintained their >rating in the first x rounds of the tournament). They are fairly close in >strength. But after this tournament, one of them is rated 1616 and the other is >rated 1584. Is it true that the 1584 player is REALLY 32 points lower than the >other? Of course not. But, that does not stop him from getting this rating. > >How can one state that it is MORE accurate to predict results between the 1584 >and the 1616 player when in reality, they should both be 1600 players? The >prediction should be off. Please explain with more detail since I am clueless on >this (and yes, I realize that if someone has a propensity to forfeit, this would >lower his rating in the long run). > >Thanks, > >KarinsDad :) Has the USCF changed their forfeit policy over the years. When I played in rated tournaments, forfeits counted for pairings, but the games were _not_ rated in any way... ditto for automatic 1/2 point byes, etc... they didn't affect your rating unless the game was really started... has this really changed?
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