Author: James B. Shearer
Date: 17:18:22 10/14/99
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On October 14, 1999 at 20:07:08, Ratko V Tomic wrote:
>Well, if, say, you take Ed vs Hsu, we can say, without knowing the best ideas of
>their work, there is a 50% a priori chance Ed is more creative (in his chess
>programming work). And the same goes for all the top chess programmers. So, the
>odds that Hsu is more creative than, say, the top 5 micro programmers, are 1 in
>32, i.e. 3.1%. In other words, the odds that at least some top micro programmers
>are more creative than Hsu are about 97%, which supports well my hypothesis
>(arrived at another way).
Actually the odds Hsu is the best are 1 in 6 since by your assumption
each of the 6 is equally likely to be best. Your error is the events are not
independent since once we know Hsu is better than Ed the odds are no longer
50-50 for Hsu vrs each of the remaining programmers.
James B. Shearer
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