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Subject: Re: ply search vs elo rating

Author: Robert Hyatt

Date: 08:17:08 10/20/99

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On October 20, 1999 at 02:26:55, blass uri wrote:

>On October 19, 1999 at 23:59:20, Jeremiah Penery wrote:
>
>>On October 19, 1999 at 17:15:30, blass uri wrote:
>>
>>>On October 19, 1999 at 16:57:41, Jeremiah Penery wrote:
>>>
>>>>On October 19, 1999 at 16:48:36, walter irvin wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>On October 19, 1999 at 10:30:18, rich buska wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>i understand that is a 1/2 move but what does equal in elo
>>>>>>
>>>>>>2 ply 1100 ?
>>>>>>4 ply 1400  ?
>>>>>>6 ply 1600?
>>>>>>8 ply  1800? etc?
>>>>>
>>>>>depends on program , but i noticed that you raise each ply by 200 .during the
>>>>>first few ply may be worth more than 200 . plys deeper than 7 are worth less
>>>>>usually .plys greater than 12 are worth even less vs humans .against computer
>>>>>200 might work out , but not vs humans.
>>>>
>>>>The available evidence disagrees.  In "Crafty goes deep" and "DarkThought goes
>>>>deep" (JICCA, sometime), it is shown that every increase in depth is relatively
>>>>equal with regard to picking a new best move.  Therefore, the ratings difference
>>>>should be roughly equal for each ply as well.
>>>
>>>It is not clear if the last consequence is correct.
>>>and there is no evidence that it is correct against humans because humans can
>>>go to positions when another ply is less important.
>>
>>But if the program picks a new best move when going to the next ply, it is just
>>as important.
>
>This is not clear.
>The question is if the new best move is leading to the same result of the game
>or to different result of the game.
>
>It may lead to different result more times when you go from x plies to x+1 plies
>relative to when you go from y plies to y+1 plies.
>
>Uri


I personally believe that a depth N+1 search _always_ produces a better result
(more accurate) than a depth N search, no matter what N is.  Because even if the
two searches produce the _same_ best move, I know that it is more likely to be
the right move because one ply deeper still liked it as best.  I _really_ worry
about those positions where one ply deeper shows that the current best move is
a loser.  And if you look at a chess program's output for a game, how many times
does it fail low on the last iteration and have to change its mind?  In each of
those cases, the extra ply saved the game, rather than allowing it to be lost
instantly...



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