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Subject: Re: Odds of ratings drift being 196 poinys off of Fide ratings?

Author: Charles Unruh

Date: 11:37:31 11/29/99

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On November 29, 1999 at 14:08:46, Enrique Irazoqui wrote:

>On November 29, 1999 at 11:36:45, Charles Unruh wrote:
>
>>Does anyone know if it is possible to calculate the odds of the ssdf having a
>>"ratings drift"(You like my term :)?" of more than 196 points???  I suspect that
>>it is possible to calculate, but does anyone here know how to do it?
>
>Why don't we forget about absolute ratings and make them program-relative
>instead?

Because most of us as well as most consumers are not as concerned with the
relative strength of comps vs comps as we are with comps vs humans.
>
>T12         0
>F532      -25
>N732      -33
>N99       -52
>H732      -60
>J5        -77
>
>It has the advantage of being equally informative about the relative strength of
>programs, without giving a FIDE-like rating that is anybody's guess and way too
>inflated anyway. Does it make sense to believe that Tiger (2696) is as strong as
>Karpov (2705) and Kasparov (2715) during the 1984 World championship match

Certainly not Tiger is not near as strong as Kasp or Karpov,  that's why i was
attempting to see if someone could attempt a try at calculating the rating
drift, to try to come up with at least a relatively accurate rating comparison.
the odds of the "rating drift"(Unruh 1999 :)) being 196 points to me seem highly
unlikely.  Further place a prog such as Tiger 12 on say one of the new 750+ Mhz
machines if  the prog only gained 4 points with that massive increase in speed.
The Nay sayers such as Hyatt would have us believe that the drift has been
greater than 200+ points from the original testings against humans.   Since this
seems quite unlikely, then progs are at least 2500 fide currently on fast
hardware, and "GM strength".
>Enrique



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