Author: Charles Unruh
Date: 11:37:31 11/29/99
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On November 29, 1999 at 14:08:46, Enrique Irazoqui wrote: >On November 29, 1999 at 11:36:45, Charles Unruh wrote: > >>Does anyone know if it is possible to calculate the odds of the ssdf having a >>"ratings drift"(You like my term :)?" of more than 196 points??? I suspect that >>it is possible to calculate, but does anyone here know how to do it? > >Why don't we forget about absolute ratings and make them program-relative >instead? Because most of us as well as most consumers are not as concerned with the relative strength of comps vs comps as we are with comps vs humans. > >T12 0 >F532 -25 >N732 -33 >N99 -52 >H732 -60 >J5 -77 > >It has the advantage of being equally informative about the relative strength of >programs, without giving a FIDE-like rating that is anybody's guess and way too >inflated anyway. Does it make sense to believe that Tiger (2696) is as strong as >Karpov (2705) and Kasparov (2715) during the 1984 World championship match Certainly not Tiger is not near as strong as Kasp or Karpov, that's why i was attempting to see if someone could attempt a try at calculating the rating drift, to try to come up with at least a relatively accurate rating comparison. the odds of the "rating drift"(Unruh 1999 :)) being 196 points to me seem highly unlikely. Further place a prog such as Tiger 12 on say one of the new 750+ Mhz machines if the prog only gained 4 points with that massive increase in speed. The Nay sayers such as Hyatt would have us believe that the drift has been greater than 200+ points from the original testings against humans. Since this seems quite unlikely, then progs are at least 2500 fide currently on fast hardware, and "GM strength". >Enrique
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