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Subject: Re: Same as now, or better

Author: Pete R.

Date: 09:31:30 12/02/99

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On December 01, 1999 at 18:40:49, leonid wrote:


>Forget about the business world. It is just when somebody understood that by
>selling computers to "simple man" that PC started its existance. Before
>everybody tryed mainly sell its computers where it was the most profitable - to
>the big company.

This is where the PC was valuable, because of the first killer app VisiCalc.
Home users came much much later, and now that the Internet is the killer app
everybody wants a computer at home.


>Here once again you exagerate the importance of the big officies in the life of
>PC. Mainly it is bought to work at home.

I don't know what the ratio of home sales to business sales is, but I think you
are taking a "techie" perspective.  You can download and install Linux but most
people won't bother, free or not.  When you buy a PC it comes with Windows (does
Dell sell their Linux-configured PCs for any less than Windows-configured PCs?)
and people use Windows because they use it at work, and they are used to it, or
they want to play games and all the software you want runs on Windows.  How many
people build a new PC and then go buy another copy of Windows for it, rather
than loading the same copy they had on the old machine onto the new machine?
Please, nobody does this. There are a lot of home users who don't even pay for a
lot of their Windows software like Office and so forth, and this is very rampant
in many countries. So I think you are exaggerating the importance of Linux being
free to even the individual user.  The real benefit of Linux where Windows can't
compete is that if you have a very specific computer function you want, say for
a science experiment, you can customize the OS itself.  Other than that I don't
see how Linux will build momentum even for individual home users, because they
probably want games, and game developers are not going to bother until Linux is
much more popular, and again you have a chicken and egg scenario where Linux has
to somehow generate more momentum. I don't believe this will happen because
Windows is not that bad, and it will get better.  As I said I'm also not
convinced that open source will improve anything.  Netscape Communicator is open
source and is significantly behind in technology compared to IE 5, and IE 5.5
will be released soon.  I welcome competition for MS, but Linux being free and
open source I don't believe is as important to its success as you do.  If you
are going to code in assembly, the Windows platform is the clear choice *if* you
ever intend to do anything commercial with your program.  Otherwise of course
it's up to your preference.  Enough said on this topic, we are free to disagree
but I recognize the same pie-in-the-sky talk among Linux advocates that I've
seen from Mac advocates, it's like a big social issue, like there would be world
peace and an end to poverty if only everyone used Mac or everyone used Linux.
;)))  The practical reality I think is a different picture. My wager is that
Linux' popularity will plateau and MS' desktop market position both at home and
in business will be the same as it is now.



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