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Subject: Re: Show it's predictive power.

Author: Carl McClain Morris, Jr.

Date: 16:49:17 12/10/99

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On December 10, 1999 at 13:24:32, Roger wrote:

>I don't see any problem with recalibrating the SSDF, though doing it with as
>many of the top programs as possible and with as large a sample of games as
>possible would be recommended.
>
>Whether it should be done, or not, can be settled empirically. Differences
>between the ELOs of two players translate into probabilities of winning and
>losing. Accordingly, it ought to be possible to develop the recalibrated ratings
>using a pool of, say, twenty games of three programs at 40/120, and then how
>that these new ratings predict the pattrern of wins and losses better than the
>old ratings.
>
>No one can argue with that. And until it can be shown that the new ratings are
>better able to predict that the old ones, then I'd just leave it alone.
>
>Recalibration is inevitable, because GM-computer games will become much more
>common.
>
>Roger



I have a feeling that in the event of GM-computer games, the computer rating may
even be higher. When you speak of Fritz, Hiarcs, Nimzo, Chess-Tiger and others,
we may find those rating higher than now posted.


Carl



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