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Subject: Re: Test suites - can they reliably predict ELO?

Author: John Warfield

Date: 17:18:45 12/11/99

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On December 11, 1999 at 19:46:50, Bertil Eklund wrote:

>On December 11, 1999 at 17:52:56, Tom King wrote:
>
>>Which of the well known test suites predicts the strength of chess programs most
>>accurately?
>>
>>I ask this, because I recently made some *slight* mods. to the evaluation
>>function in my program, Francesca. I ran the LCT-2 suite, and the results
>>indicated that it was a wash - the modification gave me about 5 ELO points,
>>apparently.
>>
>>I then ran a series of fast games against another amateur program. I realize
>>it's important to play a large number of games, to reduce the margin of error,
>>so I ran two matches of 65 games. The result was this:
>>
>>MATCH 1
>>"Normal" Francesca scored 37% against the amateur program.
>>
>>MATCH 2
>>"Modified" Francesca scored 45% against the amateur program.
>>
>>Quite a difference! It implies that the modification is worth over 50 ELO. I
>>guess I need to play more games, against a variety of programs to verify whether
>>this improvement is real, or imaginary.
>>
>>Anyhow, beware of reading too much into ELO predictions of test suites..
>>
>>Cheers All,
>>Tom
>
>Hi!
>
>Mr Irazoquis secret test-suite is very impressing! I think it´s about 111
>positions. He can predict a new programs strength better than any other test I
>have seen so far. If his predictions remains as good as his previous results, I
>hope we can stop publishing our list and just play for fun.
>
>Bertil SSDF

  Why is this Test secret??



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