Author: Dann Corbit
Date: 12:26:12 12/13/99
Go up one level in this thread
On December 13, 1999 at 02:50:11, James Robertson wrote:
>On December 12, 1999 at 20:42:08, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>>On December 12, 1999 at 17:19:30, John Warfield wrote:
>>> How often is a 1900 rated player expected to draw a grandmaster? Just curious
>>>A friend of mine drew hiarcs7 yesterday, I thought this was odd.
>>
>>Rough math says that a 200 point spread produces a 3:1 result. 400 points
>>turns that into a 15:1 result. 600 points (which would fit your question
>>apparently) would be a 63:1 result. So maybe 2 draws in 64 games...
>
>Just slightly higher than that... 3.1% is the expected result for the
>lower-rated player if there is a 600 point difference....
In addition:
There is a 0.0306534 point win expectancy for {all} 1900 players against {all}
2500 players. A few of those 1900 players are future super-GM's and some of
them are future GM's on the rise {they were all 1900 at *some* point n'est ce
pas?}. And depending on playing styles, etc. a particular GM may do
unexpectedly well or poorly against a particular 1900 player. So really, we are
talking about broad averages. You can say very, very little about the
expectancy for a single match between two players with as far as predicting the
outcome accurately.
However, as far as the vast pool of players is concerned, about 3% of the points
would go to the 1900 players {for whatever reason}.
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