Author: Dan Ellwein
Date: 06:47:30 12/14/99
Go up one level in this thread
On December 13, 1999 at 15:26:12, Dann Corbit wrote:
>On December 13, 1999 at 02:50:11, James Robertson wrote:
>>On December 12, 1999 at 20:42:08, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>>>On December 12, 1999 at 17:19:30, John Warfield wrote:
>>>> How often is a 1900 rated player expected to draw a grandmaster? Just curious
>>>>A friend of mine drew hiarcs7 yesterday, I thought this was odd.
>>>
>>>Rough math says that a 200 point spread produces a 3:1 result. 400 points
>>>turns that into a 15:1 result. 600 points (which would fit your question
>>>apparently) would be a 63:1 result. So maybe 2 draws in 64 games...
>>
>>Just slightly higher than that... 3.1% is the expected result for the
>>lower-rated player if there is a 600 point difference....
>
>In addition:
>There is a 0.0306534 point win expectancy for {all} 1900 players against {all}
>2500 players. A few of those 1900 players are future super-GM's and some of
>them are future GM's on the rise {they were all 1900 at *some* point n'est ce
>pas?}. And depending on playing styles, etc. a particular GM may do
>unexpectedly well or poorly against a particular 1900 player. So really, we are
>talking about broad averages. You can say very, very little about the
>expectancy for a single match between two players with as far as predicting the
>outcome accurately.
>
>However, as far as the vast pool of players is concerned, about 3% of the points
>would go to the 1900 players {for whatever reason}.
Some-how... I can't picture a GM ever playin' a 1900 player...
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