Author: Dave Gomboc
Date: 23:54:31 12/16/99
Go up one level in this thread
On December 17, 1999 at 01:47:28, Dann Corbit wrote: >On December 17, 1999 at 01:36:19, Dave Gomboc wrote: >>On December 16, 1999 at 20:08:25, Dann Corbit wrote: >> >>>On December 16, 1999 at 19:09:09, pete wrote: >>>>On December 16, 1999 at 18:50:55, robert michelena wrote: >>>[snip] >>>>>Seriously, my highest rating was around 1620. >>>[snip] >>>>then if you are really serious which I tend to believe to some extent look at >>>>the ELO system ; now assume for one second the progs play at about 2500 USCF . >>>>Ok ? >>>> >>>>Ok , you have your own experiences ( them progs are simply unbeatable , which is >>>>predictable as the rating difference should be about 900 points to you ) , but >>>>now think about a player rated about 2000-2100 USCF which is _far_ away from >>>>master strength ; see the number of points he can expect from the top programs ? >>>> >>>>Do you think you really are competent to make a fair judgement here ? >>> >>>Using the above as a 'frinstance to model with, >>>The oft repeated table: >>> >>>Win expectency for a difference of 0 points is 0.5 >>>Win expectency for a difference of 100 points is 0.359935 >>>Win expectency for a difference of 200 points is 0.240253 >>>Win expectency for a difference of 300 points is 0.15098 >>>Win expectency for a difference of 400 points is 0.0909091 >>> >>>2500 - 2050 = 450. >>>Between 9 % 5% of points will be won by that difference. >>>An occasional win should not be at all surprising. With 100 gmaes played, if >>>your rating were 2100, you should get 9 points (on average). Anything from 18 >>>draws to 9 wins. >>> >>>Win expectency for a difference of 500 points is 0.0532402 >>>Win expectency for a difference of 600 points is 0.0306534 >>>Win expectency for a difference of 700 points is 0.0174721 >>>Win expectency for a difference of 800 points is 0.00990099 >>>2500 - 1620 = 880. >>>Between 1% and 1/2 of 1% of the points will be one (much closer to 1/2 of 1%) >>>So play 100 games under tournament conditions to get one draw. >>> >>>Win expectency for a difference of 900 points is 0.00559197 >>>Win expectency for a difference of 1000 points is 0.00315231 >>> >>>I don't think (however) that an argument from math will prove effective either. >>> >>>I'll bet that the really good players like Vincent score remarkably well against >>>programs (unless their Achille's heel is tactics). >> >>The normal distribution does not accurately predict the occurance of large >>upsets. Elo himself discussed this in his book, which you can reference for >>further details. >Of course, for a single contest, it does not accurately predict anything. So >what does he say about large upsets? More frequent that predicted? Less >frequent? I don't have the book (does anyone know where to buy it from?) Upsets are more frequent than predicted when using a normal distribution. What I don't understand is why people don't take real tournament results and figure out the correct distribution. Maybe they actually do... <shrug> Dave
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