Author: Christophe Theron
Date: 11:58:20 12/17/99
Go up one level in this thread
On December 16, 1999 at 20:08:25, Dann Corbit wrote:
>On December 16, 1999 at 19:09:09, pete wrote:
>>On December 16, 1999 at 18:50:55, robert michelena wrote:
>[snip]
>>>Seriously, my highest rating was around 1620.
>[snip]
>>then if you are really serious which I tend to believe to some extent look at
>>the ELO system ; now assume for one second the progs play at about 2500 USCF .
>>Ok ?
>>
>>Ok , you have your own experiences ( them progs are simply unbeatable , which is
>>predictable as the rating difference should be about 900 points to you ) , but
>>now think about a player rated about 2000-2100 USCF which is _far_ away from
>>master strength ; see the number of points he can expect from the top programs ?
>>
>>Do you think you really are competent to make a fair judgement here ?
>
>Using the above as a 'frinstance to model with,
>The oft repeated table:
>
>Win expectency for a difference of 0 points is 0.5
>Win expectency for a difference of 100 points is 0.359935
>Win expectency for a difference of 200 points is 0.240253
>Win expectency for a difference of 300 points is 0.15098
>Win expectency for a difference of 400 points is 0.0909091
>
>2500 - 2050 = 450.
>Between 9 % 5% of points will be won by that difference.
>An occasional win should not be at all surprising. With 100 gmaes played, if
>your rating were 2100, you should get 9 points (on average). Anything from 18
>draws to 9 wins.
>
>Win expectency for a difference of 500 points is 0.0532402
>Win expectency for a difference of 600 points is 0.0306534
>Win expectency for a difference of 700 points is 0.0174721
>Win expectency for a difference of 800 points is 0.00990099
>2500 - 1620 = 880.
>Between 1% and 1/2 of 1% of the points will be one (much closer to 1/2 of 1%)
>So play 100 games under tournament conditions to get one draw.
>
>Win expectency for a difference of 900 points is 0.00559197
>Win expectency for a difference of 1000 points is 0.00315231
>
>I don't think (however) that an argument from math will prove effective either.
>
>I'll bet that the really good players like Vincent score remarkably well against
>programs (unless their Achille's heel is tactics).
That's interesting, Dann.
Do you have a formula that gives the win expectancy from the elo difference, and
the opposite formula too?
I would like to have both, but I'm not good enough in maths.
Christophe
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